By 2025-08-28 (UTC+8), the 'thermometer' provided by mainstream aggregators is: prices fluctuate around ~$0.54, 24h trading volume ~9-13.6 million USD, circulation about 210-220 million coins, maximum supply 1 billion; the ATH of ~$3.42 on May 5 this year is a clear top anchor point. Different platforms have slight variances in circulation and trading volume; it is more stable to compare using the same source metrics.
Supply and unlock determine the upper limit of the central point, while demand and depth determine the lower limit of fluctuations. Align the three columns side by side:
Supply column: maximum supply 1 billion, historical and future distribution/unlocking rhythms (from tracking platforms);
Demand column: re-staking service volume, sSOL on-chain utilization rate, sUSD on-chain circulation, and other 'usage metrics';
Market column: main trading pairs 2% depth, cross-exchange price differences, market-making coverage.
When the demand column rises and depth stabilizes, even if there are phased unlocks, prices are mostly absorbed; conversely, they will be amplified. This interpretation is more structural than 'focusing on daily price fluctuations'.
The narrative catalysts in recent months have focused on the 'InfiniSVM on-chain route' and 'PDA native SVM bridge'. The Block reported in early January that Solayer is upgrading InfiniSVM from a re-staking protocol to the execution base of a hardware-accelerated chain; the official white paper subsequently provided engineering details on network bandwidth and multi-execution clusters. Historically, such routes of 'upgrading the execution layer to a system engineering' often produce secondary fluctuations at progress disclosures and developer migration nodes.
The risk interpretation can be more engineering-oriented: if the white paper metrics (bandwidth/parallelism) have not been accepted for a long time; if the 'bridge—re-staking—settlement' closed loop is slow to advance in real business; or if the external protocol utilization of sSOL/sUSD weakens continuously for several weeks, while trading depth declines, these should be seen as structural warning signals. Conversely, if the server-side (the need to purchase deterministic DApp/network) list continues to expand, and the PDA native bridge makes cross-domain communication a default feature, the 'inertia' of the demand curve will become stronger.
Make 'supply—demand—market' a fixed header, which not only facilitates your daily updates but also allows readers to view LAYER as 'a used network credential' rather than 'an activity ticket'. This is especially important in the context of parallel advancements in re-staking and high-performance execution.
