3/
Why hasn't the market responded positively to Notcoin?
1. Decline in gameplay dividends and insufficient retention
The traffic dividend brought by tap-to-earn mining is over; most users are merely short-term participants, lacking long-term stickiness.
The transformed Not Games platform has a new direction, but has yet to see a flagship hit like StepN, and user activity has declined.
2. Token economy and valuation pressure
Total supply of 10.24 billion tokens, with over 97% in circulation, means there is basically no 'unlock expectation' speculative space in the market.
FDV and circulating market value are almost the same ($181 million vs $186 million), indicating that the valuation space has been completely exhausted, lacking upward expectations.
Lack of effective token buyback, destruction, or staking mechanisms makes it difficult for NOT to accumulate intrinsic value.
3. Capital inflow and liquidity decline
24-hour trading volume is only $25 million, down over 37% month-on-month, with liquidity clearly contracting.
Insufficient market buying pressure means that even if the project has news, it is difficult to form sustained upward momentum.
4. Intense competition in the Ton ecosystem
Other light applications in Telegram (such as Hamster Kombat) are dividing user attention, diluting Notcoin's advantage at the 'user entry' point.
The focus of the TON ecosystem remains on DeFi, wallets, and payment infrastructure; the narrative of the gaming distribution platform has limited capital attraction.
5. Transformation narrative not realized
Although Notcoin has announced its transformation into a Web3 game distribution platform, the ecological implementation is still in its early stages, and the market has not seen large-scale developers and users follow up.
Investors worry this will repeat the old path of StepN and Axie Infinity: early explosion but failing to establish a long-term ecological barrier.
The restart of the TON ecosystem is a long and arduous journey.
$TON $NOT