Friends, hello!
Let's take a close look at the situation with $BTC — why this may be an interesting moment to enter.
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Fundamental analysis
1. From a maximum above $124,000 (August 14), the Bitcoin price dropped to around $108,700 — the lowest in seven weeks, a decline of more than 10%.
2. The main reasons for the decline — outflow of ETF funds, mass liquidations of large players/whales, and excessive leverage.
3. Some analysts believe this decline is a typical correction of 20–30%, rather than the end of the cycle, and note that there may be institutional entry and ETF flows upon exiting the correction.
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Technical analysis
1. Supports:
around $107,000 — previously resistance, now may play the role of a base;
$100,000 — historical zone and 200-day moving average.
2. Resistances:
$117,000 — the area where the upward attempt did not hold;
$123,000 — the maximum of the current month.
Possible Bull Trap: the new local maximum is not confirmed by RSI — weakness of buying momentum.
The week showed a technical deterioration: BTC dropped below the 100-day SMA for the first time since April — a signal of pressure and possible continuation of the decline.
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What does this mean?
1. We are observing a heavy pullback after the hype caused by ETF outflows and active liquidation of large players.
2. The range $107k–$100k — a critically important zone: a breakout downwards — danger of further decline, a rebound — a chance for a reversal.
3. Return of demand from institutional participants and ETF inflows may stimulate movement towards levels $117–$123.
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Conclusion: it may now be a suitable time for a 'buy the dip' strategy, but with caution. Watch for signs of recovery and institutional interest.