STH MVRV falls under the 155-day average.
Signals cooling momentum from short-term holders.
Media prematurely claims bull cycle is over.
The Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) ratio has recently fallen below its 155-day average, a level that often reflects significant shifts in market sentiment. This metric, which compares the price short-term holders paid for Bitcoin against its current market value, is used to gauge whether they are in profit or loss. A dip below the 155-day average suggests that many short-term holders are now at or near breakeven — a classic sign of declining momentum.
When STH MVRV weakens like this, it often reflects growing uncertainty or hesitation in the market, particularly among newer investors or those trading within a shorter timeframe. This cooling off doesn’t necessarily mean a market crash is coming, but it can signal the end of a particularly strong bullish push.
Media Hype and Panic: A Common Pattern
Despite this technical shift, some media outlets have already rushed to declare the end of the current bull cycle. In just the past 24 hours, headlines speculating about the cycle’s conclusion have popped up — a pattern that’s been seen many times before in previous market phases.
It’s important to remember that metrics like STH MVRV are just one piece of the puzzle. While they can reflect temporary shifts in sentiment, they rarely tell the full story. Markets often move in cycles, and short-term corrections or slowdowns are natural parts of that process.
STH MVRV has dropped below the 155-day average – this is a sign of cooling momentum among short-term holders. Meanwhile, over the past 24 hours, reports have already appeared in the media claiming that the bull cycle is over pic.twitter.com/VTsARAUBeB
— Axel Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) August 27, 2025
Why This Isn’t Necessarily Bearish
Historically, similar dips in the STH MVRV have occurred even during broader uptrends. These moments usually separate strong hands from weak ones, shaking out overleveraged or nervous traders while giving long-term holders a chance to accumulate at better prices.
In conclusion, while the dip in STH MVRV indicates a cooling in short-term enthusiasm, it should not be mistaken as a definitive end to the bull market. Investors should stay cautious but also avoid being swayed by fear-driven media narratives.
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