Recently, there have been many voices in the market saying that the bull tail has arrived, and big players are all selling, leaving only ETH to bring altcoins for one last frenzy.

I have a slightly different opinion:

From a stage perspective: The characteristics of a bull tail are high FOMO, completely losing rationality. From the emotional side, it doesn’t seem like a bull tail yet; looking at various long-term indicators, hardly any have hit, and it doesn’t look like it in terms of cycles either. As I mentioned before, this cycle is affected by the massive liquidity injection from the previous round, and there will be a time lag, so we can't just rely on time for judgment. I personally feel that we are not yet in the bull tail stage.

From a funding perspective: Market fluctuations around interest rate cuts are normal; I personally also plan to take advantage of this month to trade in waves. The funds entering the market now are different from before; many traditional old money investors have come in. They approach it from an asset allocation perspective, focusing more on the long term and viewing Crypto as a risk hedging tool, thus being more rational. It’s highly probable that they will first allocate a small amount to BTC and ETH and then observe opportunities in other coins, rather than rushing into altcoins directly, so the altcoin season may have to wait a bit; we can pay attention to leverage ratios.

After the expectation of interest rate cuts is settled, it will take time from the Fed's rate cut to actual capital inflow, and this window period just gives them an allocation opportunity. Moreover, the more the interest rate cut cycle progresses, the more the U.S. tends to support Crypto; after all, they need buyers for U.S. Treasuries. The larger the scale of Crypto and stablecoins, the larger the scale of U.S. Treasury purchases. Therefore, for a period after the interest rate cut, the demand for capital inflow will continue.

How to view the market: I personally feel that during this month before and after the interest rate cuts, BTC will experience wide fluctuations, potentially looking down to around 92,000; if it reaches this level, it would be a good opportunity to bottom out before it rises again. ETH will adjust along with BTC, and falling to just above 3,000 would already be a good bottoming point. If one were to say ETH will reach 10,000 USD, perhaps no one would believe it.