The direction of the ECB's monetary policy is receiving considerable attention, and based on recent developments and the situation, the movements in September are particularly critical.

In July, interest rates were maintained, allowing the market a period of observation, with inflation data becoming a key variable for policy direction. Currently, the rise in energy and commodity prices means that if the Eurozone's CPI data in August is poor, the possibility of a rate cut in September will significantly increase; conversely, the pace of any policy shift may be delayed.

As I understand it, the ECB's wariness towards inflation is deeply rooted; while high interest rates can curb inflation, they also impede economic recovery, and the internal economic divergence in the Eurozone makes policy-making even more challenging.

It is expected that in September, the ECB will likely observe data and energy prices first. If inflation unexpectedly falls, a small rate cut may occur; if inflation fluctuates, it is more likely to maintain interest rates.

In the long run, weak economic recovery and global central bank policy linkage all suggest that the ECB will begin a period of easing, but the rate-cutting process in 2025 will be fraught with twists and turns due to inflation fluctuations.

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