Analyst James Chek points out that Bitcoin's market cycles are not centered around its halving events, but are influenced by other factors. He states that these cycles are driven by 'adoption trends and market structure'. The market's peak in 2017 and the low in 2022 are key turning points.
Chek defines the past cycles as: the 'adoption cycle' from 2011 to 2018, driven by early retail adoption; the 'growth cycle' from 2018 to 2022, driven by high-leverage booms and busts; and the 'maturity cycle' after 2022, driven by institutional maturity and market stability.
Chek criticizes the viewpoint that relies on halving events because historical trends may not reoccur. He states that Bitcoin and gold are the only 'endgame assets'.
Evolution of cycle theory
Although the traditional four-year cycle theory is widely accepted, suggesting that halving events lead to reduced supply and increased demand, which brings about a bull market, Chek's viewpoint is that market cycles are more influenced by 'liquidity trends' rather than halving events.
Recent predictions indicate that, due to institutional involvement, the traditional four-year cycle may be coming to an end, and a bull market could extend into next year.
Analyst Bob Loukas takes a more pragmatic view of market cycles, stating that people often say 'Bitcoin no longer has cycles', but in reality, the market is always cycling through periods.
These analyses point to a fact: market changes are more influenced by macroeconomic factors rather than merely halving events.
