The Night Before the Surge? ETH MACD Golden Cross Below Zero + $120 Million Buy Orders to Rescue the Market, Institutions: $5000 is Just the Starting Point!
Trend Direction: Currently, ETH is in a 1-hour downtrend channel, but yesterday formed a long lower shadow, indicating buying support near $4300, and a short-term possible rebound. Key Price Levels: Support Level: $4300, Resistance Level: $4700
Core Fundamentals
Regulatory Favor: Hong Kong, stablecoin regulations come into effect, compliant stablecoins like USDC and PYUSD obtain EU licenses, reducing resistance for institutional funds to enter. United States, the GENIUS Act clarifies ETH as a “commodity,” with CFTC leading regulation, decreasing policy uncertainty. Institutional Actions: Listed companies like SharpLink Gaming continue to increase their ETH holdings, with total holdings exceeding $2 billion, showing long-term confidence.
BlackRock's ETH ETF sees a net inflow of $450 million in one day, setting a new historical high, with strong funding support. Technical Upgrade: The Ethereum Electra upgrade is complete, increasing throughput to 10,000 TPS, reducing gas fees by 85%, and the Layer 2 ecosystem is booming, with DeFi locked assets surpassing $210 billion.
Macroeconomic Impact: Fed interest rate cut expectations heat up, with a 60% probability of a rate cut in September, a weak dollar cycle benefits crypto assets. Trump's tariff policy causes short-term market volatility, but progress in China-US negotiations may ease emotions.
The probability of a rebound is high, with $4300 support holding strong, targeting the $4500-$4700 range. Key Risks: If it falls below $4300, it may drop to $4100; if it breaks above $4700, the rebound could reach as high as $5000. Strategy Recommendations: Day Trading: Light positions to go long near $4300-$4350, stop loss at $4250, target $4500. Medium to Long Term: Accumulate in batches on dips, focus on ETH ecosystem upgrades and institutional buying pace.
ETH currently feels like a beach ball being held underwater—technical pressures are pushing it down, but underneath there are institutional and upgrade “hands” supporting it. Today, it’s likely to fluctuate between $4300 and $4700; a drop to around $4300 could be a buying opportunity, and a rise above $4700 will provide some breathing room. In the long run, with clearer policies and technical upgrades, this ball will eventually bounce back up!
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