Exploding! Tom Lee's bull market theory is under fire from data. How can one get rich quickly in the new crypto paradigm?
Good morning, everyone! Tom Lee's bull market logic has merit. He closely aligns with the two macroeconomic factors of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and economic recovery, which aligns with historical patterns. Institutional behavior data also supports this. In April, large outflows from the $BTC ETF and a surge in volatility led to institutional liquidation. Now that volatility has returned to low levels, the conditions are ripe for institutional re-entry.
However, I believe this bull market is no longer just beginning. BTC has risen 270% from its low in October last year, and the crypto index has also risen nearly 200%. The first phase has concluded, and now it seems more like a mid-term correction. While interest rate cuts are important, liquidity is the key. The Fed didn't cut rates, but the overnight reverse repo volume plummeted from $2.5 trillion to $420 billion. Actual money has already flowed into the market, pushing US stocks and cryptocurrencies to new highs.
The cryptocurrency market now has its own engine. BTC ETFs are bringing in $320 million daily, $ETH in staking returns, and the explosive growth of the Layer 2 ecosystem have led to a 34% year-over-year increase in the total stablecoin supply. These are the core drivers of this bull market, diminishing the impact of traditional macroeconomic indicators.
In the short term, ignore the noise in the ISM data and focus on the September Fed meeting and Ethereum's Pectra upgrade in October, positioning yourself for the Layer 2 market and staking service providers. In the medium to long term, if the ISM index truly breaks through 50, mining stocks could surge, but be wary of capital flows from crypto to traditional cyclical stocks.
In general, Tom Lee's macro framework is a strategic guide, but the crypto market has entered a new phase driven by both traditional macro and on-chain dynamics. It's recommended to maintain a 60% position in mainstream macrocurrencies, a 40% position in crypto-native opportunities, and always keep 10% in cash to mitigate unexpected fluctuations. After all, the lessons from the institutional stampede in April are still fresh in people's minds.
The market fluctuates daily, so don't be too nervous. If you're constantly feeling behind the times or distracted by market noise, feel free to chat.
