🔍 The Deep Logic Behind the Potential 'Tom Lee' Market for SOL: DAT Mechanism and VC Liquidation Risks

📌 Core Issues

If SOL experiences a Tom Lee effect (similar to the influx of funds seen with BTC ETFs), is it merely VCs/large holders taking the opportunity to sell, rather than real buying support?

📊 The Uniqueness of the SOL Ecosystem: DAT Mechanism and VC Concentration

✅ DAT (Token Asset Trust) Mechanism:

Allows locked SOL (such as VC/foundation holdings) to be exchanged at a 1:1 par value to institutional vaults, instead of being directly sold on the secondary market. Essentially: transferring the 'potential selling pressure' to the receiving institutions (like market makers, asset management companies), avoiding direct dumping that could lead to a price crash.

✅ VC Holding Concentration:

A large amount of SOL was initially concentrated in the hands of Alameda, Multicoin, Solana Foundation, etc. After unlocking, they need to offload. Direct selling risk: if VCs sell heavily, SOL could experience a drastic drop similar to the 2022 FTX crash (from $260→$8).

✅ 'Pseudo-Bullish' Case:

News: 'A certain company purchases a large amount of SOL as reserves' → In reality, it is receiving locked tokens from VCs through the DAT mechanism. Result: There is no real buying support in the secondary market, and the price rises before declining (for example, SOL fell from $120→$80 in 2023, along with continuous selling by VCs).