The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has shown significant volatility, adjusting within a range between $106,000 and $110,000, a movement that aligns with recent technical predictions. This behavior raises the critical question of whether the bearish cycle has ended or if we are witnessing a simple technical bounce before a new drop.
Detailed Analysis by Time Frame
1-Hour Chart: Resistance and Possible Acceleration Downwards
In the one-hour chart, the key lies in the price's ability to surpass the 30-period moving average (MA30). A sustained breakout, backed by significant volume, could lead to a new attempt to test the MA90. Conversely, a failure to break above the MA30 could trigger an accelerated drop. The recent bearish rotation of the MA90, indicating a bearish alignment between long-term moving averages (MA90, MA180, MA360), reinforces a technical perspective of strong bearish trend. This structure suggests that any bounce meeting resistance at MA90 has a high probability of culminating in a new drop.
4-Hour Chart: Influence of External News and Dynamics of Moving Averages
In this time frame, the market's response to external news is evident. The recent rally driven by Donald Trump's statement about a legal battle against Fed Governor Cook temporarily disrupted the technical pattern. However, selling pressure around $110,800 persists. From a purely technical standpoint, any bounce encountering technical resistance at the top of MA15 or failing to break the MA30 is likely to be short-lived. The downward rotation of the MA90 and its crossover with the MA180 reinforce the bearish perspective, acting as a key technical resistance in the short term. Unlike previous movements, the MA90 no longer acts as support, indicating a shift in market sentiment.
Indicator Analysis: Crosses and Cautious Volume
Technical indicators present mixed signals. The KDJ has formed a golden crossover, and the MACD is attempting to follow it, which could suggest bullish momentum. However, the current low trading volume and the possibility of the MACD rejecting the golden crossover invite caution. This means that while there are signs of a bounce, bullish strength is not fully confirmed, preventing validation of a reversal of the current trend.
Daily Chart: Trend Confirmation and Possible Acceleration of Descent
In the daily chart, the recent drop broke the decision line MA90, with a closing price below it. This action is a strong indication of a possible acceleration of the descent. The expansion of the red bar in the MACD and the rejection of a golden crossover below the zero line validate the growing bearish sentiment. The candlestick pattern in the daily chart suggests the possibility of an imminent drop, with the resistance of the MA90 acting as a crucial point. If the price fails to exceed the MA90 and the MA7 crosses below it, a larger-scale bearish trend would be confirmed. Alternatively, a sideways movement along the MA90 could precede a new accelerated drop.
Analyst's Conclusion
The current technical structure of Bitcoin suggests that, despite sporadic bounces, the short- and medium-term bearish trend prevails. Technical indicators, such as the moving average crossover and MACD behavior, point towards a continued correction. The key for investors is to monitor the price reaction at technical resistances, especially the MA90, and to observe trading volume to determine the strength of any movement. Volatility driven by external news adds an element of risk, underscoring the need for rigorous risk management in the cryptocurrency market.
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Key technical pressure: 118500-113500
Technical supports: 108000-106200-99900
Long-term technical support: MA360
