Many people have a misconception that as long as the Federal Reserve listens to Trump and starts cutting interest rates wildly, cryptocurrencies will enter a frenzied bull market. In fact, this viewpoint is incorrect.

The reason the dollar can maintain its status as the world's reserve currency is not solely because of the size of the U.S. economy, but because it has institutional credibility; people believe it won't be manipulated by politics at will. Once the independence of the Federal Reserve is lost, the first to suffer will not be others, but the U.S. stock market itself, and the credibility of the dollar will also be directly discounted.

Stablecoins in the cryptocurrency space, such as USDT and USDC, are fundamentally derivatives of the dollar's credibility. People are willing to hold them because they believe that the dollar is genuinely redeemable. If the independence of the dollar is undermined, then the foundation of these stablecoins will also be shaken.

Some believe that after Trump intervenes with the Federal Reserve, the easing will be even more aggressive, causing the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrencies to soar. In the short term, this may be the case, but in the long term, it leads to overdrawn credibility; U.S. debt cannot withstand it, the international status of the dollar will be shaken, and in the end, the assets denominated in dollars will only be a house of cards. Those who fantasize about getting rich based on this kind of logic often end up losing everything.

If Trump really reaches into the Federal Reserve and causes it to lose its independence, turning it into a puppet institution of Trump, then the nature of the situation is completely different; it would undermine the very foundation of the entire U.S. financial system.