The market's first reaction is always risk aversion, not rational narratives. In the face of sudden systemic shocks, traders' first step is to reduce positions, not to ponder 'Is Bitcoin more valuable?'. The turbulence in the dollar system → risk assets (including BTC) are first hit, this is inertia logic. A true reassessment of value usually waits until the market digests the panic.

BTC is essentially still a 'high Beta risk asset' in the capital chain. Although the narrative is 'decentralized hedge', in the eyes of most institutional funds, BTC belongs to the same category as U.S. stocks and the Nasdaq - risk assets. When the interest rate path becomes uncertain and risk premiums rise, the first to be sold off are BTC. Between narrative and trading logic, the market always prioritizes the latter.

The politicization of the Fed does not equal immediate monetary easing. Many people think 'Trump's interference with the Fed = monetary easing', but the reality is: Trump may be more inclined to 'lower short-term rates and raise long-term rates' to cater to his fiscal policies and electoral interests. This may not necessarily be a one-way positive for BTC. In the short term, with uncertain capital costs, institutions may choose to wait and see.

The crypto market lacks its own 'active buying power'. This is the most realistic aspect. The turmoil of the Federal Reserve should have been beneficial for the narrative around BTC, but the current crypto market lacks active incremental funds, only passive funds. No one is stepping in to buy; no matter how good the logic is, it can only remain on Twitter and will not be directly reflected in the K-line.

So the conclusion is: The decline of Bitcoin is not a denial of the narrative, but a short-term reaction determined by the capital chain and trading logic. In the long run, the politicization of the Fed actually strengthens the hedging logic of BTC, but the market will lag in pricing, and it may even take a 'second shock' to manifest.