First, let's take a look at the contract data: In the last 24 hours, a total of 202,584 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $922.48 million!!! Among them, Ethereum longs lost about $312 million, and Bitcoin longs lost $277 million.
Still the same thing, don't touch contracts in the crypto circle; spot trading may be slow, but it's stable!
Over the weekend and on Monday, BTC experienced a deep pullback, triggering a rapid chain reaction in the market, with mainstream altcoins under pressure: Solana plummeted over 8% in a single day, XRP dropped 6%, and smaller market cap tokens like PENDLE, LDO, and PENGU recorded double-digit declines, with a daily drop of up to 15%.
As long as your account's drawdown does not exceed 20%, you are successful in this wave!
Now let's take a look at Bitcoin's monthly return rate! Since 2013, September has been one of the worst-performing months for both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
BTC has shown negative performance in September in most years, with only 2023 (+3.91%) and 2024 (+7.29%) showing increases.
Ethereum's September decline is usually larger, with 2017 (–21.65%), 2020 (–17.08%), and 2022 (–14.49%) significantly underperforming BTC.
Only in 2019 (ETH +5.72% vs BTC –13.38%), 2023, and 2024 did ETH show stronger performance.
This September curse has appeared in every bull market cycle. In 2013, 2017, and 2021, Bitcoin experienced significant pullbacks in September after strong summer rebounds.
BTC
Is Bitcoin really going to drop below 100,000?
If BTC rebounces but cannot stay above 113640, it may drop again. This morning, it fell to a low of $108666, and other coins also saw significant drops. Are many brothers feeling fear from Bitcoin's decline?
Bitcoin has only dropped a little over 12 points from its peak; previously, it dropped 20-30 points at the daily level. In comparison, what is this? When it was rising, everyone asked if they could enter the spot; now that it’s dropping, are you afraid of picking people up? Although we are still in a 'bear market' pattern, the overall view is bullish. Do not blindly chase shorts; it is advised to reduce positions when the market rebounds, as the highs only provide short opportunities.
Today's Market Analysis:
Bitcoin began to rebound after breaking through the first support level last night. Today, pay attention to the 110540 level; only if it stabilizes above this level for 1-2 hours can we see a rebound. The resistance levels to watch are around 111680-112570-113600!
If the rebound cannot stay above 110540, it indicates that the rebound lacks strength. Pay attention to the support levels around 108570-107440, 106370-103000 for another potential drop!
For a short on the rebound, you can aim for $112,000; if it doesn't go that high, you can short from a higher position. There’s also a gap from $114,000 to $116,000; reaching this range would be an excellent short opportunity.
ETH
Ethereum's long-term outlook still points to $8000 to $10000.
Please cherish the opportunity that comes after the recent pullback. This wave of decline is a strategy by institutions to deliberately suppress the market and wash out retail investors, allowing them to absorb chips at a lower price.
Due to support from U.S. policies and the first large-scale compliant entry of Wall Street institutional funds, the foundation of this bull market is different from the past. The future outlook remains optimistic; $5000 is absolutely not the endpoint for Ethereum. The current drop is to prepare for a breakthrough above $5000 to attack $5550-$5880.
Today's Market Analysis:
Ethereum began to rebound after hitting several support levels overnight. Today, pay attention to the 4450 level; only if it stabilizes above this level for 1-2 hours can we see a rebound. The resistance levels to watch are around 4515-4590-4678!
If the rebound cannot stay above 4450, it indicates that the rebound lacks strength. Pay attention to the support levels around 4373-4310-4260 for another potential drop!
Altcoin Sector
Overall, following the mainstream pullback, the altcoin index has slightly declined, and market sentiment remains neutral.
Strategy: In the short term, it is advisable to observe or follow in lightly, waiting for liquidity to transfer from BTC. Prioritize relatively high market cap altcoins; low market cap tokens have not shown signs of a general rally.
Investment Opportunity Observation
ETH Ecosystem: PENDLE has seen a significant pullback, so it is advisable to patiently wait for stabilization. Projects such as UNI, ENS, and ETHFI benefit from the ETH ecosystem, and if rate cut expectations are met, they have high mid-term allocation value.
BSC Ecosystem: Recent activities have been frequent, and Alpha point tasks are ongoing, suitable for participation to gain extra returns.
On-chain dynamics: The BSC and X chains have seen relatively high on-chain activity recently; attention is needed to see if new projects emerge and drive capital inflow.
Finally
The overall market is in a phase of mainstream coin pullbacks, with altcoins following suit. In the short term, we still need to wait for liquidity to be released and for market sentiment to improve. The medium to long-term logic still depends on macro factors (especially the Fed's rate cut pace). It is recommended to control positions, prioritize core assets in the ETH ecosystem, participate moderately in platform activities, and patiently wait for market signal confirmation.
