Durable goods in the US - better than forecasts, positive for the markets.
To the numbers:
- Core orders for durable goods (m/m) (July): 1.1% against a forecast of 0.2% and a previous figure of 0.2%.
- Orders for durable goods (m/m) (July): -2.8% against a forecast of -3.8% and a previous figure of -9.3%.
Why is this positive for the markets:
- Signal on business investments. There is steady corporate demand for equipment and software. This reduces recession risks and supports company profits in cyclical and tech sectors.
- Support for GDP. Growth in core orders usually pulls up shipments of investment goods, which are included in the calculation of fixed capital investments. And this is an important driver of real GDP.
- Signals for the Fed. The data indicates healthy growth without overheating. At the same time, the volume remains negative, which does not push the Fed towards tightening. The likelihood of sharp hawkish signals is lower. Although this is already clear after Powell's speech.
In short, a strong core indicator (+1.1%) indicates lively corporate demand. For stocks and the crypto market, this is a positive backdrop, provided that yields and the dollar do not make a sharp upward move.
How does BTC react to the data? Positively, as we mentioned in the weekly calendar. So far, a modest increase of +0.67%; for serious growth discussions, we need to break through $110,500 and hold above. Because that way we will formalize a bullish pattern with targets around $112,500. We discussed this likely figure in our copy trading chat, by the way.
So far, this is just a hypothesis, the pattern is not even formed. But a positive driver for the market has been received. Short liquidations are happening. But not large volumes.
