How exactly is a bear market defined?

Is it only considered a bear market if prices drop by 50%? Or does it count if it drags on for a year and a half with a continuous decline?

If we go by the latter definition, can the period from March to October 2024 also be called a bear market?

Therefore, everyone has a different definition of a bear market in their minds. What others refer to as a 'bear' may not necessarily be the same 'bear' you see.

My own definition is simple: when the main market participants completely lose confidence in the future. This can be seen by looking at the large holders.

During the peak in November 2021, large holders (holding 100-100,000 BTC) frantically cashed out profits, with a scale exceeding $2 billion, directly crashing the market's mentality.

Now, even if BTC rises to $120,000 for a new high, the largest cash-out scale for large holders is less than $1 billion, which is not even on the same level as the peak in 2021.

Looking at the chip structure:

When BTC reached $65,000 in 2021, cheap chips were mainly concentrated in the $6,000-$10,000 range, making huge profits, so when the price dropped, they could still sell at a profit.

In 2025, the chips are mainly in the $90,000-$110,000 and $113,000-$118,000 range. Once it falls below cost, many people will directly face losses, especially the funds from ETFs and Wall Street institutions, who play differently from the early players in 2021.

So, is it reasonable to conclude a long bear market will repeat after the double top in 2021, solely based on K-line 'top divergence' and 'death cross'?

This is a typical mechanical nesting doll, failing to consider chip structure, whale behavior, and macro environment to draw conclusions, which actually comes off as selling anxiety.

If we say it is a 'temporary weak market,' I can agree.

But to say it is a 'full-blown bear market,' I feel the logic is fundamentally unsound. $ETH $BTC