The Bitcoin CME gap must be filled! Will it first drop back to 100,000 or directly surge to 120,000?
This weekend, Bitcoin left a noticeable "CME gap" between 114,000 and 118,000. Simply put, this means that after the futures market closed over the weekend, there was a disconnect between the opening price and the spot price. Historically, these types of gaps are almost always filled, just at varying speeds.
Currently, Bitcoin is stuck around $110,000, which is a key support level.
Two possible scenarios ahead:
First scenario: Surge upwards
If the price holds steady at 110,000 and breaks through the resistance zone of 116,000-117,000, the probability of filling the gap is very high, and it may then surge towards $120,000 or even higher.
Second scenario: Drop downwards
If 110,000 cannot be held, Bitcoin may directly fall back to the psychological level of 100,000 and then seek opportunities to rebound.
The Federal Reserve is a key variable
The short-term trend of Bitcoin not only depends on technical factors but also on the movements of the Federal Reserve, which are more important. Currently, interest rates are at 4.25%-4.5%, and the Federal Reserve is still debating whether to cut rates—after all, inflation has yet to be brought down to the 2% target, leaving them with no choice but to continue tightening. This has limited market liquidity, putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.
Additionally, Bitcoin is deeply tied to Nasdaq tech stocks and has an inverse relationship with the dollar index; during uncertain times, it also has some correlation with gold.
Conclusion: The gap must be filled, it's just a matter of time
Bitcoin is currently at a crossroads: to surge to 120,000, it needs to break through 116,000; to drop downwards, it may first return to 100,000. But one thing is clear: the CME gap has never been "missed" in history and will be filled sooner or later.
The question is, will you see 100,000 first, or witness $120,000 directly?
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