From 2 PM until now, it has been fluctuating between 128-130 USD, just like the wave at 8 PM last night. Is there going to be another crash tonight?
I just finished reading the messages in the fan group, and my phone vibrated again—one fan sent 3 screenshots: the first is last night's 8 PM SOL consolidation candlestick, the second is this afternoon's consolidation candlestick, and the third is the aftermath of last night's crash (from 132 USD dropping to 121 USD, with 800 people liquidated), with the caption 'The more I look, the more anxious I get. Should I cut losses first?'
The SOL market in these two days is simply a 'historical replay'—last night after 5 hours of consolidation, it suddenly crashed, and today it's stuck in the same range again, is it 'accumulating strength' or 'a precursor to a crash'? To avoid repeating last night's mistakes, we need to dissect the 3 key signals behind the consolidation.
1. First, look at the 'familiar' details: Today's consolidation is identical to last night's before the crash.
It's not that fans are suspicious; today's SOL market activity even 'reproduces the details' from last night:
The consolidation range is spot on: Last night it was a consolidation between 129-131 USD for 5 hours, and this afternoon it was 128-130 USD for 4 hours, both showing 'narrow fluctuations, with movements not exceeding 2 USD'—this kind of 'extreme calm' often hides the fact that funds are 'quietly retreating';
Volume continues to decrease during consolidation: Last night during the consolidation, SOL's hourly trading volume dropped from 120 million USD to 60 million USD, and today it’s even more exaggerated, dropping from 100 million USD to 45 million USD—'shrinking volume' means 'buying is failing to keep up', just like a car running out of gas; once facing selling pressure, it can easily drop sharply.
The linked signals are consistent: Last night during the consolidation, ETH was also grinding in the 4400-4420 range without leading the rise; this afternoon ETH is stuck in the 4380-4400 range, similarly inactive—SOL has always been strongly correlated with ETH, and if the market doesn't move, its chances of breaking out alone are almost zero, making it more likely to drop instead.
The most heartbreaking is last night’s liquidation data: SOL dropped from 132 to 121 in just 1 hour, with 218 people liquidated across the network, resulting in 23.7 million USD evaporating—one fan added a 5x long position at 130 USD without a stop loss, directly liquidating and losing 30,000 U, and this morning he was still saying in the group 'I should have gone cash during the consolidation.'
2. Don’t bet on 'whether history will repeat itself'! If these 3 signals don’t appear, staying on the sidelines is the best strategy.
Many people are now conflicted about 'should I sell first' or 'should I catch the bottom'; actually, there’s no need to rush—SOL must show these 3 signals to escape the 'crash risk', otherwise, staying on the sidelines is the safest choice:
Break above 132 USD with increased volume: 132 USD is today's 'key resistance level', and also the starting point of last night's crash. Only by stabilizing above 132 and having hourly trading volume return to above 100 million USD can it indicate 'buying is entering', making it possible for consolidation to rise;
If it drops to 126 USD and doesn't continue to fall: 126 USD is a recent 'strong support level'; the last time it dropped here, it rebounded by 8 USD. If it indeed drops to 126 today and closes with a 'hammer candlestick' (long lower shadow), it indicates that there is buying support, and it will likely not drop further in the short term.
The market has a clear direction: If ETH can break above 4450, or BTC stabilizes at 120,000, SOL is likely to follow suit; if the market continues to consolidate or even drop, SOL may not crash but will struggle to have a good performance—don’t expect it to 'strengthen independently'.
A fan asked, 'What should I do with my current positions?' My suggestion is:
If you chased a long position above 130, set a stop loss at 125 (sell if it breaks below, don’t hold on);
If you are in a cash position, don't think about 'buying the dip for short-term trading'. The fluctuations during a consolidation period are small, and you might lose on transaction fees. It's better to wait for a clear signal before taking action.
2. The two biggest pitfalls during consolidation: How many people fall for the 'desire to make quick money'?
Holding on without signals: Last night, a fan thought 'after such a long consolidation, it has to go up', added a long position at 131, and ended up unwilling to cut losses after the crash, suffering a loss from 500U to 3000U, eventually still cutting at the lowest point;
Frequent short-term trading: Some people were trading back and forth between 129-130, trying to make a 1-2 USD profit, but ended up spending 200U on transaction fees without making any profit—during the consolidation period, small fluctuations make short-term operations likely 'not worth the effort'.
Veteran players often say: 'The consolidation period is more exhausting than the crash period; a crash is 'quick pain', while consolidation is 'slow suffering', but if you can't endure and act randomly, you often lose even more.' Just like the time SOL consolidated for 3 days in 2023; many couldn’t help but enter, and it crashed 20%, trapping them for half a year.
4. Practical advice for ordinary players: Keep an eye on these 2 time points.
Before 8 PM tonight: If SOL is still consolidating between 128-130 and the trading volume continues to decrease, the 'consolidation crash' scenario from last night is likely to replay in the early morning. I suggest those in cash refrain from entering, and those holding should reduce their positions by 50%;
Before 9 AM tomorrow: If it doesn't drop tonight and can stabilize above 132 in the morning, and the trading volume increases, you can try a small long position with a target of 135; if it breaks below 126, don’t try to catch the bottom, wait until it drops to 124 to reassess.
I will monitor SOL's trading volume and support levels in real-time in the fan group, for example, 'if it drops to 127 with no increase in volume, don’t buy' and 'if it rises to 131 with insufficient volume, don’t chase', helping everyone avoid pitfalls during the consolidation period.
Let's discuss in the comments: How much SOL do you hold now? Were you caught in last night’s crash? Share, and I can help you analyze what to do next!
