8.26 Economic Events Impacting the Cryptocurrency Market! A Must-Watch for the Crypto World!
Today's economic data and events will indirectly affect the cryptocurrency market through the chain of "macroeconomic expectations → US dollar liquidity → risk appetite".
1. Crude Oil and Inflation Data: Affecting the US Dollar and Risk Sentiment
Domestic refined oil price adjustment: If oil prices rise, it will strengthen domestic inflation expectations and influence market expectations for "loose monetary policy";
US July durable goods orders month-on-month, June housing price data: If the data exceeds expectations, it indicates strong resilience in the US economy, and the Fed's "interest rate cut expectations" may be delayed — expectations for tightening US dollar liquidity will rise, putting short-term pressure on the cryptocurrency market (especially BTC and ETH) as risk assets.
2. Consumer Confidence Index: A Barometer of Risk Appetite
US August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index: If the data falls back, it indicates weakness in US consumer spending, and the market may worry about an economic recession, leading funds to flow into "safe-haven assets" (such as the US dollar and gold), increasing outflow pressure on the cryptocurrency market;
If the data exceeds expectations, risk appetite may rebound, and the crypto market could see short-term inflows, but one must be wary of the backlash from "strong data → delayed interest rate cuts → long-term pressure".
3. Central Bank Speeches and API Inventory: Marginal Impact but Worth Monitoring
Speech by the Governor of the Bank of Canada: If "hawkish" signals are released (maintaining high interest rates), it will strengthen the US dollar index, indirectly suppressing the cryptocurrency market;
US API crude oil inventory: Influences crude oil prices, which in turn affects inflation expectations and US dollar liquidity, with similar logic for its impact on the cryptocurrency market.
Cryptocurrency Market Response Strategy
Short-term: Keep a close eye on US durable goods orders, housing price data, and consumer confidence index — if economic data is strong, the cryptocurrency market will likely correct, and one can accumulate at lower prices; if the data is weak, there may be a rebound, but quick entry and exit are advised;
Medium to Long-term: These data are essentially fragments of the "macroeconomic puzzle" that ultimately influence Fed policy. If "strong economy → delayed interest rate cuts" becomes the main storyline, volatility in the cryptocurrency market will increase in the second half of the year. It is recommended to allocate mainstream assets like BTC and ETH, and control leverage.
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