Matrixport: flows and seasonality are holding back BTC from growth.
Analysts showed the dynamics of fund flows: in summer, large money 'went on vacation,' and this is immediately visible in spot ETFs.
Key points from the new #Matrixport review:
- #BTC is heading towards a month of outflows from spot ETFs (currently -$972 million). According to the author's estimate, August could become the second largest outflow in history - around $1.2 billion (record - $3.5 billion in February amid tariff turbulence in the USA). They mention a 'fifth consecutive month of outflows through ETFs,' it is unclear what is meant here, but from April to July the dynamics were positive. Outflows only occurred in February and March.
- Against this backdrop, #ETH continues to attract funds - the shift in institutional interest is noticeable.
- The seasonal factor is at work: liquidity is thinner in summer, impulses are shorter, and the market is easier to 'keep in a corridor.'
The chart from Matrixport shows cumulative inflows into Bitcoin ETF (line) and monthly inflows/outflows (bars). After a strong July, the curve has stalled, and the columns for August are going negative again.
The key thesis of the authors is that flows and seasonality matter - they are currently 'muffling' growth.
Accordingly, for bulls, the key signals needed right now are a change in the tone of ETF flows and a return of inflows to BTC, not just to ETH.
It is noteworthy that according to #SosoValue data from yesterday, American Bitcoin ETFs showed an inflow for the first time since August 14 (the day of ATH), amounting to $219 million. This is just one day, clearly not a trend. But at least - the streak of days with outflows has been broken. The whole week is still ahead, let's see how it develops.
