Before facing the hot season of 'Golden September and Silver October', the whole market has already begun to warm up, and may face greater challenges as well as opportunities!
Last Friday, the market experienced a spike due to Powell's remarks, combined with this week's downward reversal, which has basically ended most retail investors. If you are still holding onto your chips during this round, you have already surpassed most people, and the upcoming moment may be the time to 'set sail'.
Even though the probability of a rate cut in September is as high as 82%, overall, the possibility of a 50 basis point cut is very weak. The greater likelihood is a 25 basis point cut, and a 25 basis point cut may not be sufficient to meet the current market's expectations of overheating, which could affect further downward testing in the second half of the year.
After this week's reversal, the intention has become clearer. Breaking 110,000 indicates that we have reached a phase peak. As long as we do not rise above 117 again in the small cycle, I personally believe that the larger cycle will eventually break through this round's small cycle 0.618 support, and then test the larger cycle Fibonacci levels of 0.5-0.618 at 105-100.
For small investors above 10,000 US dollars, as long as they can adapt flexibly and use medium and short-term wave combinations, this wave of 5X and 10X is not a dream...