A roundup of noteworthy prediction market platforms.
Written by: confugen
Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
Super gambling will become a trillion-dollar industry.
Prediction markets are currently being promoted around the clock.
They are not fresh; Polymarket has already taken the lead.
The market has played out meme coins to exhaustion, and the super cycle of meme coins has quietly occurred, with various meme platforms emerging, while the 'believers' are becoming fewer.
KOLs repeatedly harvest fans like leeks, and the meme coin market will continue; I might trade occasionally, but the wealth effect is expected to decline.
However, the overall market's super gambling will continue to grow explosively. Young people can't afford homes, and their salaries are eroded by inflation, leading many to gamble their livelihoods on their futures.
Data also supports this, with sports betting currently valued at 100 billion dollars, expected to grow to 190 billion dollars by 2034, indicating that ordinary people are becoming increasingly fascinated with gambling.
The same goes for crypto, with Polymarket's total trading volume reaching 17 billion.
Sports betting is essentially a prediction market. You bet on which team will win, which players will score, and so on. It involves strategy, unlike slot machines which rely purely on luck.
In today's society, it is more 'accepted.'
So it makes sense for ordinary people / retail investors to expand from sports betting to other areas. The huge trading volume of Polymarket also shows this: they bet on the next president, the next interest rate cut, when Taylor Swift will get engaged, the highest-grossing movie of the year, and so on. Some of this data may be for airdrops, but even so, the liquidity is very large.
It is very likely that making all these 'predictions' and competing with friends will soon become commonplace, especially for large events like elections. Why play PvP when you can play games that earn money?
So the above arguments well demonstrate that prediction markets will continue to explode.
So we need a way to engage with this field. Many people have also discussed this on Twitter.
Currently, Polymarket has not launched a token. People speculate that if they release a token, the airdrop for users would be at the level of a Hyperliquid super airdrop. But to be honest, it is still uncertain whether they will IPO or release a token. Their biggest competitor is Kalshi, which also has no token. So what should we buy?
As far as I can see, there is currently no clear winner in the market. There may be multiple winners, just like all casinos typically make money, but there are also thousands of casinos. However, we can break it down into various sectors.
Trading terminals:
@fliprbot: A bit like an Axiom or Photon trading terminal for prediction markets, allowing you to trade Polymarket and Kalshi simultaneously. It is also set to integrate Kalshi soon, and you can make predictions via Twitter tweets. Leverage features are expected to be added in the third quarter.
@polymtrade: The first mobile trading terminal for Polymarket. Many participants use mobile devices rather than desktops. Mobile-friendly applications have greatly aided Solana's success in this cycle as they can focus on meme coin purchases.
Trading bots (e.g., via Telegram)
@polycule_bot: A Telegram trading bot for Polymarket, supported by @alliancedao.
@tryokbet: Another prediction market Telegram trading bot. Non-Polymarket/Kalshi prediction market platforms. These are interesting, but due to low liquidity, the risks are high. If one succeeds, the upside potential could be significant.
@Truemarketsorg: Similar to Polymarket but for everyday news headlines. Interestingly, they use a so-called 'truth oracle' instead of an 'optimistic oracle.' This means that if the outcome is ambiguous, a 'reviewed' committee will decide.
@PredictBase: Allows you to create your own prediction market on the Base chain for any question.
@predictandpump: Same as above, but on Solana.
@MyriadMarkets: Same as above, on Abstract.
Highly specialized prediction markets
@footballdotfun: Betting on the performance of football players. This is interesting because it requires a lot of strategy and football knowledge to identify which players are undervalued. And the feeling of new players lagging behind is like the NFT Gas wars of 2021—always very intriguing.
@PicassoMarkets: A daily stock prediction market set to launch on SEI.
@ventuals_: Enables you to go long or short on pre-IPO companies. Perpetual contracts are somewhat prediction markets as well and are currently in the testnet, built on Hyperliquid.
@noise_xy: Built on MegaETH. Currently in testnet, allowing you to participate in other protocols like Pump.fun or Abstract, and they are going viral on Twitter in a Kaito-style.
@Euphoria_fi: Flash trading for perpetual contracts, a gamified leverage trading method built on MegaETH, the product has not been released yet.
This is an exciting field, and the emergence of a large number of products indicates that this is a key area of focus for venture capitalists and builders. Considering the potential market of billions to be tapped, it makes sense.
But there is still a lot of room for improvement in prediction markets. For example, they need to incorporate more gamification elements to attract users.
In my opinion, prediction markets are the sector that needs the most tracking and will be the birthplace of unicorns.
