In the past two days, Bitcoin has been experiencing sharp fluctuations and pullbacks mostly at midnight. The current sentiment is that most Bitcoin whales are high-profile swapping for Ethereum. The largest whale still holds $7.6 billion worth of Bitcoin, and there is more than one whale swapping for Ethereum. This is also a reason why Bitcoin has been weak lately.
The current selling pressure mainly comes from whales with low-cost chips. Every time they sell one Bitcoin, the market needs over $110,000 to absorb this selling pressure. However, MicroStrategy is still buying continuously. These factors will soon be digested, and this selling pressure hasn’t left the market; it has just shifted to Ethereum. We just need to wait for these whales to swap enough Ethereum.
The exchange rate of Ethereum and Bitcoin has also broken new highs. Institutions and whales are increasingly optimistic about Ethereum. In other words, it will soon be Ethereum's turn to start showing effects.
Regarding market views, I have always felt that the market will not end at this stage because all products in the crypto circle, including Ethereum and altcoins, have not shown much improvement. The sentiment of Ethereum breaking historical highs hasn’t brought about much; instead, it has welcomed a pullback after a new high. If it ends here, then who benefits? Institutions and listed companies? Most of Ethereum's cost is still around the 3000 area, while most institutions’ cost for Bitcoin is around 70,000. So, expending so much effort and capital for such a percentage of profit is unlikely.
If you say that the expectations of institutions and listed companies are different from those of retail investors, that’s fine. Now many altcoins also have crypto reserves and are indeed buying with real money. Moreover, most altcoins are just holding on and haven’t started to perform yet, so saying it’s ending here doesn’t align with logical expectations.
Now some people are using escape top indicators to look at market expectations. All market indicators are lagging. Right now, just Trump’s words can influence market trends and expectations, so if you still use these indicators to judge bull and bear markets, then those who understand will understand.
If we talk about an ending signal, it must be when some listed companies start selling coins, or when the crypto reserves of some altcoins start selling coins. This might indicate an end, because Ethereum was bought up starting in June by the strategy of listed company crypto reserves. Otherwise, could these fluctuations be driven just by the Ethereum team? Impossible. The Ethereum Foundation is continuously selling off and affecting the market. I wonder if everyone still remembers a time when the Ethereum Foundation sold Ethereum and the next day Ethereum would react and pull back.
In fact, the logic is similar to how these ancient Bitcoin whales are selling coins to buy Ethereum. However, these whales have not left the crypto circle; when listed companies sell, it’s different. When listed companies sell, it’s likely that they are directly cashing out. Watching this action can also count as a signal for a peak.
With interest rate cuts imminent, don’t lose out just before dawn. The declines before rate cuts are all buying opportunities. As long as you buy within a reasonable range, you’re good. Find the range for Ethereum, and then refer to the support range of your selected altcoins. You can enter your initial positions without thinking about selling at this stage; focus on accumulating some strong altcoins. When the market starts to FOMO, that will be your time to exit.
Finally, let’s talk about the holdings situation. Previously, I indicated LTC at 105, DOGE at 0.23, IP at 5.5, UNI at 7.6, SUI at 2.65, PEPE below 1, and GMX at 13.1. Some of these are at cost price, and most are still in profit, so stay calm and patient with your holdings.
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