📢 Major Interpretation: If BlackRock's Ethereum ETF Enables Staking, How High Can ETH Prices Soar? 🚀
If the SEC approves, this will be another milestone event following the approval of spot ETFs. Let's delve into the possibilities and potential impacts behind this.
🔥 Why is the staking feature so important?
1️⃣ Lowering the threshold: Traditional investors can participate in staking through stock accounts without directly holding ETH or understanding the technical details, enjoying returns (currently an annualized rate of about 3%-4%).
2️⃣ Reducing circulation: A large amount of ETH will be locked in staking, intensifying supply constraints, while demand may surge due to institutional capital inflow.
3️⃣ Confidence signal: The endorsement by the world's largest asset management company, BlackRock, further strengthens ETH's property as an 'income-generating asset,' attracting more long-term capital.
⚖️ SEC Approval Probability Analysis
· Supporting Factors:
✅ Strong push from institutions like BlackRock;
✅ There is a precedent for the approval of a staking-based Solana ETF (based on the '1940 Act');
✅ The SEC may batch approve multiple applications to improve efficiency.
· Challenging Factors:
❌ The first staking ETF based on the '1933 Securities Act' framework, cautious regulatory attitude;
❌ Technical risks (such as staking penalties) may raise the SEC's concerns about investor protection.
· Time Window: The market predicts that the fourth quarter of 2025 is a key decision period, with a final deadline around April 2026.
⚠️ Risk Warning
· There is still uncertainty in regulatory outcomes; the SEC may delay or reject applications;
· The market may 'buy the expectation and sell the fact,' taking profits after a short-term surge;
· The macro environment (such as Federal Reserve interest rate policies) will influence the willingness to invest in risk assets.
💎 Summary
If BlackRock's Ethereum ETF staking is approved, it will be another significant breakthrough in institutional adoption, potentially pushing ETH into a new round of upward cycles. However, investors should remain rational, pay attention to SEC dynamics and macro trends, and avoid blind FOMO.