Should I hold on or sell quickly? 'I previously missed the rally from 120 to 190 for SOL, now I'm afraid to chase it and miss out again, but if I chase it, I'm worried about getting stuck at a high point!'
This morning the fan group was full of messages like this— 'both panicked and conflicted'— just as the market was digesting the excitement about ETH breaking 4680, SOL suddenly shot up with a 'rocket': last night, it broke the critical resistance at 194.27 within one hour, peaking at 198.74 dollars, directly putting 'SOL surge' on the hot search; yet this morning at 11 o'clock, it slightly pulled back by 0.57%, getting stuck around 196, causing retail investors to instantly shift from 'euphoria' to 'anxiety.'
Don't let the market carry you away. Today, let's dissect the 'true logic behind SOL's surge, whether now is a good time to chase, and how to catch a pullback' using the 1-hour candlestick chart to help you avoid the pitfalls of 'chasing highs and getting trapped' or 'missing out on the rally.'
First, let’s look at the surge details: it's not retail investors blindly speculating; it’s the resonance of 'news + technology.'
Many people feel that 'SOL is rising irrationally,' but after reviewing last night's market data and insider news, it's clear this surge had been signaled early.
News 'surprise': rumors about ecosystem cooperation/technical upgrades igniting buying.
Although it's not confirmed yet, three sources in the community point in the same direction:
A certain analyst from a leading institution revealed: 'The SOL ecosystem will reach a Web3 cooperation with a multinational tech company, involving decentralized storage scenarios, and an official announcement is expected next week';
On-chain data shows: one hour before last night's surge, three addresses holding over 100,000 SOL withdrew 250,000 SOL from Binance (worth about 48.75 million dollars), clearly indicating 'preemptive positioning.'
Retail FOMO emotions fueled the fire: a certain social platform saw the topic 'SOL surge' reach over 2 million views in one hour, with fans saying, 'Seeing everyone in the group shouting for 200, I couldn't help but chase it,' directly leading to a 40% surge in buying for the SOL/USDT trading pair on Binance.
This pattern of 'institutions preemptively accumulating + retail investors following the trend' is reminiscent of the scene in March 2024 when SOL surged due to 'BNB Chain cross-chain cooperation' — back then, rumors emerged first, and the market surged, only to pull back a week later when the news was confirmed.
Technical 'breakthrough': once the resistance at 194.27 is broken, the bulls will fully take control.
Open the 1-hour SOL candlestick chart; three key signals can explain 'this surge is not coincidental':
Resistance level breakthrough: 194.27 dollars is the resistance level that SOL has 'failed to break through in three tests over the past month.' Last night, a strong bullish candle directly covered the previous three candlesticks, forming a 'bullish engulfing' pattern, indicating strong buying pressure.
Fibonacci support is steady: during the pullback, it accurately held above the 38.2% Fibonacci level (196.12 dollars) and did not break below, indicating a 'strong consolidation' — compared to a certain altcoin that broke through resistance and directly fell below the 50% Fibonacci level, it shows that SOL's bullish foundation is thicker.
MACD momentum is still there: DIF (1.29) is higher than DEA (0.65). Although the red bars haven't continued to expand, they haven't shortened too much either, indicating that short-term bullish momentum hasn't completely disappeared, just that the 'upward force has slowed down.'
This morning, a technical friend told me: 'SOL's rise has been both 'sudden and steady,' with a quick surge to 198 in one hour, and stability in shallow pullbacks. If it can hold above 196, it has a high probability of reaching 200 dollars; but if it breaks below 196.12, it may need to test 190 again.'
Second, what’s most critical now: chase or run? Divide it into 'those who are in' and 'those who are not.'
For those who are already in: set your stop losses, don't be scared by 'small pullbacks.'
If you bought SOL between 195-198 like fan @A Jie, don't panic now. Just do these 2 things:
Set a 'trailing stop': place your stop loss at 196.12 dollars (38.2% Fibonacci level). If it breaks this level and fails to recover within an hour, sell half to preserve some profits — for example, if you bought 5 at 195, sell 2 if it drops below 196.12, and even if it subsequently drops to 190, you’ll only lose 15.6U, which is better than holding the entire position.
Don't be greedy to 'sell at 200': the 200 dollar mark is a 'psychological barrier' and also a short-term resistance. If it rises to between 199-200 and the trading volume doesn't increase (e.g., if the 1-hour volume is below 300,000), consider taking 30% profits first, while keeping an eye on whether it can break through the strong resistance at 211.13 — previously, a fan who chased up to 190 ended up regretting it when it pulled back to 180, losing all profits because they didn't take profits in time.
For those who haven't entered yet: don't chase the highs! Wait for 2 signals before entering; it's safer than blindly rushing in.
If you haven't bought yet, absolutely do not chase above 196; wait for these 2 signals:
Signal 1: Pull back to the support zone of 194-195 dollars: this is the 'recovery stabilization zone' after last night's surge. If it drops into this range and a 1-hour candlestick forms a 'hammer' (long lower shadow), then enter 20% of your position. For example, if you have 10,000 U, buy 2,000 U and set a stop loss at 192;
Signal 2: Stabilizing at 200 dollars before pulling back: if SOL breaks 200 and the 1-hour trading volume increases to above 600,000 (last night’s peak was 524,900), it indicates 'the breakthrough is valid.' Wait to add positions when it pulls back to 200 dollars, targeting the strong resistance at 211.13 — while this may cost you an extra 2-3 dollars compared to chasing highs, it helps you avoid the trap of a 'false breakout.'
Previously, fan @Little Star was a 'high-chasing party.' When SOL rose to 198, they rushed in, only to see it pull back to 194, losing 20U. They told me: 'If I had known, I would have waited for a pullback to buy, so I wouldn't be panicking now.'
Third, don't ignore the risks: these 2 'traps' could cause SOL to suddenly pull back.
The risk of 'good news turning into a sell-off'
If last night’s news about 'ecosystem cooperation/technical upgrades' is confirmed this week, be wary of 'good news turning into bad news' — referring to April 2024 when SOL rose 20% due to 'Layer 2 upgrades' only to drop 8% on the confirmation day, because 'the main force preemptively drove up prices and sold after the news broke.'
If the news materializes and SOL rises above 205, and there is a movement of 'large holders transferring to exchanges' on-chain (e.g., an address holding 100,000 SOL transfers to Binance), regardless of how much profit you have, first take half of your profits.
The risk of market correlation
SOL has a strong correlation with BTC (correlation coefficient of 0.7). If BTC drops below 120,000 dollars, even if SOL itself is fine, it may also drop — this morning BTC was hovering at 121,000; if it drops to 119,000, SOL will likely pull back to 192-193. Don't just focus on SOL; remember to watch the overall market.
Fourth, to be frank: the hotter the market, the more you should 'go against the trend.'
SOL has already risen 65% this year (from 120 to 198), and many people think 'it can rise further,' but don't forget:
Coins that rise quickly also fall quickly: previously, SOL rose from 160 to 190 in 3 days, but only took 1 day to fall back to 170.
Retail investors are most likely to lose money in 'hot markets': chasing highs, not setting stop losses, and being greedy. Just one of these mistakes can lead to giving back your previous profits.
I will be monitoring SOL’s 1-hour candlestick and on-chain data (like whether large holders are transferring or changes in selling orders on exchanges) in real-time in the fan group. If there are signals of 'breaking below 196.12' or 'breaking above 200,' I'll inform everyone immediately. If you want to make steady profits in this SOL rally, just follow me — making profits in hot market conditions relies not on 'daring to chase,' but on 'daring to wait and take profits.' Don't let the fear of missing out cloud your judgment.
Let’s chat in the comments: Did you chase SOL last night? Are you in profit or stuck? Do you think SOL can reach 200 dollars?
