Musk and DOGE:
1. Musk's Implicit Support
In 2025, Tesla promotes DOGE payment for supercharging in 15 countries and offers DOGE rewards for Powerwall users, activating payment scenarios, with related revenue accounting for 3.7% of Tesla's total revenue; while reducing labor hours in the DOGE department, advocating for indirect benefits to the industry through the 'reduction of regulations' policy, the mention of 'payment revolution' on the X platform is also interpreted as support for DOGE.
2. Core Drivers and Real Obstacles
On the driving end, Grayscale's DOGE spot ETF is under substantial review by the SEC (Bloomberg predicts a 75% approval probability), which could attract $5 billion in institutional funds if approved; DOGE has completed a technical upgrade (transaction speed increase, combined mining costs reduced by 30%), with the annual inflation rate dropping to 4.2%, and the number of whale holding addresses increasing to 112 within 30 days (controlling 41% of the circulating supply).
The obstacles lie in the annual issuance of 5 billion DOGE, with an inflation rate of 3.07%-4%, weakening its store of value attributes; the correlation between price and Musk's dynamics still reaches 0.78, and regulatory risks remain (the SEC has doubts about its 'investment contract' nature, and other institutions have lowered the ETF approval probability to 20%). 3. Price Games and Scenario Predictions
Technically, DOGE currently exhibits a 'double bottom' pattern, with strong support at $0.18-$0.20, a breakout above $0.36 could push it to $0.70, but the RSI is overbought, and the futures long-short ratio is 2.8:1, indicating high short-term pullback risk.
In terms of scenarios, optimistic (35% probability, ETF approval + 10% payment penetration) could touch $0.70 by the end of the year, with a potential surge to $1.60 in 2026; neutral (50% probability, ETF delay + stable activity) may oscillate between $0.20-$0.35; pessimistic (15% probability, regulatory classification as 'securities') could drop to $0.12. 4. Investment Recommendations
Institutions are advised to allocate up to 5% in a crypto portfolio, using options to hedge risks; retail investors are recommended to gradually build positions in the $0.18-$0.20 range, targeting $0.50 if it breaks above $0.36, with a stop-loss below $0.16. Overall, DOGE is transitioning from 'narrative-driven' to 'value-driven', with Q4 2025 potentially being a window for layout, but caution is needed for sentiment reversals and regulatory black swans.
