【ETH Today’s Market Analysis】 A Layman's Deep Dive

"The market is born in despair and moves forward in hesitation—today's ETH movement was just textbook!" Friends, let's discuss the chart. At 11 AM, we started building a position at $4,400, and this surge perfectly coincided with the news of BlackRock's ETH Trust trading volume hitting a historic high (latest news today), indicating that institutional funds are clearly laying the groundwork behind the scenes.

The price surged to $4,440, a full 40 points of profit (4440-4400=40), just touching the previous resistance level before normalizing back to around $4,420 to take a breather, giving back 20 points of profit (4420-4400=20), which is a typical technical adjustment. I mentioned in the community last week that ETH needs three accumulations each time it breaks through a previous high, and this is identical to the stepwise increase from July 15, where it went from $4,350 to $4,380 to $4,420—first breaking out with volume, then decreasing volume to confirm support.

Now, just focus on two key points: $4,420 is the dividing line between bulls and bears; if it holds, we can test the previous high of $4,450 (remember last time it reached $4,450 it saw a $20 million short position explosion); $4,400 is the lifeline that absolutely cannot be broken—after all, today Grayscale ETF saw a net inflow of $120 million (today's data), breaking below this institutional cost price could trigger a chain sell-off, with support looking down at $4,380 or even $4,348. The trading volume is particularly interesting—volume suddenly spikes during the rise and clearly shrinks during the pullback, indicating that the big players are not offloading, it's just retail investors taking profits.

My personal view is very clear: we are currently experiencing a healthy pullback in a bull market. Just like Bitcoin washed out for three days before breaking $67,000 last month, which then surged by 3,000 points. ETH’s weekly MACD golden cross has just formed; as long as it doesn’t drop below $4,400, breaking $4,500 in the future is just a matter of time. However, if tech stocks see a major drop after the U.S. stock market opens tonight (the Nasdaq futures are currently down 0.6%), it could drag down to around $4,380, which might actually present a buying opportunity.

In summary: short-term volatility and washout, holding steady at $4,420 tonight might lead to new highs; breaking $4,400 will test $4,380 but is likely to quickly recover. For those trading contracts, pay attention to position management, and for spot traders, hold steady until $4,500. Finally, here's a hook: do you think we can break $4,450 tonight? Share your holding costs in the comments, and I'll pick three friends to give away a trend analysis guide! #加密市场回调 $ETH