Recently, everyone has started predicting a market top, but this round of rising structure has fundamentally changed, unlike any previous period. This bull market is mainly driven by off-exchange institutions, with their buying and holding cycles being completely different from retail investors. Therefore, we need to analyze and view the market from an institutional perspective.
On a macro level, there hasn't been any change. Each time the market drops, institutions buy the dip. Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs re-entered the capital inflow mode, so I think it's still early to talk about a market top. As the market rises, it will continue to force old OGs to exchange their chips. This process can be understood as absorption and counteraction. Once the chips are sufficiently exchanged, the market will continue to rise.
Before the interest rate cut in September, it is estimated that there will be another wave of increases. Only after the interest rate cut expectations are realized will there be a real pullback, which will be around October. There is a basic consensus this round: small coins cannot outperform large coins; large coins are safer than small coins. Therefore, everyone should focus on leading assets. Although these leading assets have high market caps, they truly rise when they do, while small coins may not necessarily rise.
Bitcoin is testing the support level of $100,000 on the 4-hour chart, and currently, the market shows a psychological demand for support.
Those playing in the secondary market with altcoins should pay attention to the following points:
1. Do not touch old low market cap coins that cannot be older; they may be delisted at any time.
2. Do not touch coins with infinite issuance; some old mainstream coins like DOT and FIL have also increased their supply this time, and they will not be playable next time. As for smaller coins, it's even less worth considering.
3. Be steady, buy undervalued coins with normal revenue that have been heavily sold off, such as LINK, AAVE, and stablecoin sectors like ENA, CRV, etc. These will also be key this year, or consider some undervalued new coins that still have cash on hand; they will rebound the fastest once the trend comes.
Now, whether on-chain or off-chain, trading volume has significantly decreased, retail confidence is lacking, and large institutions are worried. However, this may create more opportunities, so just wait.
1. link
Chainlink dropped from $27 on Saturday, indicating that bears are fiercely defending this level.
Sellers will attempt to push the price up to the 20-day moving average ($23.37), which is a key level to watch. If the LINK/USDT trading pair strongly rebounds from the 20-day moving average, bulls will try to break through the upper resistance again. If they succeed, the price of Chainlink could soar to $31.
Conversely, a breakout and close below the 20-day moving average indicates that bulls are eager to exit. This could deepen the pullback to $20.84.
2. DOGE
Dogecoin surged significantly from the support level of $0.21 on Friday, breaking through the 20-day moving average ($0.22). However, the bulls were unable to maintain higher levels.
The 20-day moving average is flattening, and the RSI indicator is approaching the midpoint, indicating a balance of supply and demand. This may keep the DOGE/USDT trading pair within the range of $0.21 to $0.26 in the coming days.
The first strong sign for Dogecoin will be a breakout and close above $0.26. Subsequently, the price of Dogecoin may rise to $0.29. A breakout and close above $0.29 will open the door for a rise to $0.35. On the downside, a drop below $0.21 could lead to a fall to $0.19, and then further down to $0.16.
3. Sol
Solana faces resistance at the $210 level, but a positive sign is that bulls have not made significant concessions to bears.
The SOL/USDT currency pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern, and a breakout will complete with a close above $210. If this occurs, the price of Solana may initiate the next round of increase, targeting $240, and then reaching the target price of $265 for this pattern.
If the price continues to fall and breaches the upward trend line, this optimistic view will fail in the short term. At that time, the currency pair could drop to $155, where buyers are expected to enter.
Brothers who haven't joined the chat room are welcome to join:
Click to join the chat room, where there are occasional red envelope giveaways! Red envelope sent!
