1. The warning from the big players is not groundless
Peter Schiff said that Bitcoin may fall below $75,000, which is not a scare. The essence is that MicroStrategy's debt fuse is about to explode.
Cost truth:
The company said that the cost of holding positions is 67,000, but including the interest on borrowing money and the pledge guarantee, the actual liquidation line is approaching 75,000 US dollars. It's like buying a house loan of 6 million, and the bank will take the house if the house price falls to 5.5 million. Debt pressure:
The company borrowed 8.2 billion US dollars, and the interest alone is 35.1 million US dollars per year, but the main software business is still losing money, and now it is purely supported by "borrowing new to repay old".
Personal opinion:
MicroStrategy is like walking a tightrope - if Bitcoin rises, it will be deified; if Bitcoin falls, it may directly bring down the market.
2. What will happen if Bitcoin falls below $75,000?
1. The first domino: Institutional liquidation
MicroStrategy mortgaged 176,000 Bitcoins (32% of its holdings) to borrow money. Once it falls below the warning line:
Forced selling: At least 12,800 coins are sold in a single day, which is equivalent to 15% of the market's daily trading volume. Chain reaction: In 2024, El Salvador's sale of 30,000 coins caused Bitcoin to fall by 12%, and this time it may be even worse.
2. The second domino: Miners and ETF investors panic selling
Miner escape: When Bitcoin falls to $65,000, it will be a loss to turn on the mining machine. Miners will collectively shut down and throw coins. ETF redemption: Large institutions (such as BlackRock) see the net value shrink and may redeem 30,000 Bitcoins in a single day.
Case reference: In 2022, the sale of 300,000 coins during the LUNA crash halved Bitcoin, and this time the scale is larger.
3. The third domino: Derivatives market avalanche
Option ambush: Put options at $78,000 at the end of August have increased by 300%, and hedge funds have set up short traps. Leverage stepping: $48 billion in leveraged contracts may detonate multiple long positions, similar to Liang Xi's $100 million liquidation event in 2023.
3. Retail investors' survival guide: Don't be cannon fodder
Life-saving operation
Reduce leverage: If the leverage exceeds 3 times, reduce the position to within 30% when Bitcoin breaks 100,000, and do not use mining stocks as collateral (too volatile). Hedge risk: Short Bitcoin mining company stocks (such as RIOT, MARA), which fall more sharply than Bitcoin.
Knife-edge blood-licking strategy
Those who want to buy the dip: place orders at 75,000, add positions every time it falls by 5%, but must set a stop loss line of 68,000 (to prevent death spirals). Case reference: In 2025, James Wynn used 40x leverage to go long on Bitcoin, and $100 million in positions were liquidated to only a slag.
4. Whale's "Vulture Action": Don't follow retail investors!
The chain found that a mysterious large account transferred 23,000 Bitcoins to Binance in a single day (worth $2.5 billion), which may be a signal that institutions are preparing to buy the dip.
Banker's personal warning:
This operation is like vultures waiting for corpses and requires trillions of dollars to withstand volatility. Retail investors learning this trick is like breaking into a minefield with bare hands - refer to the Zhaobei Fund in 2023, which used 30 million principal to resist leverage, and finally the net value was only 0.03.
The ultimate truth
MicroStrategy's crisis is essentially a gamble of "faith kidnapping capital":
Betting the company's fate on a single asset and adding crazy leverage is like Lehman Brothers playing with subprime mortgages in 2008. Schiff's warning is actually an escape window for retail investors - when the big players cut each other, the only thing ordinary people can control is their own positions.
Remember:
Bull market is about courage, bear market is about vision.
When MicroStrategy's fireworks light up the night sky,
Don't let yourself become fuel.
Nod your head and follow me. Tell me what you think of the current market? Let's chat in the comment section! Opportunities and risks coexist in the currency circle. Stay vigilant and find the right time is key.
