Brothers, a solid signal is here!
The US economy really can't hold out any longer, the latest employment, inflation, and consumption data have collectively underperformed, and the Federal Reserve's rate cut is almost a done deal—what does this mean for the crypto market? Let's clarify today!
1. The economy is cooling, data is solid!
1. Employment has collapsed
In July, non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, nearly half less than the expected 110,000! Even harsher, the data for May and June was significantly revised down by 258,000 (from 290,000 to 33,000), marking the largest revision in five years. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for young people to find jobs.
2. Consumption has stalled
July retail sales month-on-month increased by 0.5%, does it look okay? But after excluding automobiles and gasoline, it is only 0.2%, ordinary people's wallets are really thin. The consumer confidence index plummeted to 58.6 (expected 62), hitting a new low for the year, while inflation expectations soared to 4.9%—money is not worth much, who dares to spend?
3. Manufacturing Shrinks
The manufacturing PMI has fallen to 48 (below 50 indicates recession), businesses dare not invest, and machines are beginning to rust.
2. The Federal Reserve makes a sharp turn! 91% probability of a rate cut in September!
Powell's latest speech on August 22 solidified: 'The risk of employment decline is rising', inflation has temporarily taken a back seat! He directly announced the abandonment of the 'average inflation target' and returned to flexible policy—translation: The door to interest rate cuts is wide open!
How crazy is the market reaction?
The probability of a rate cut in September soared from 40% to 91%, with an expected three rate cuts within the year! The dollar index plummeted by 1% in a single day, while gold and US stocks surged across the board, with funds already betting on loosening!
3. Why is this a super opportunity for Bitcoin?
Core logic: A rising tide lifts all boats!
Weak dollar, strong crypto: Historical patterns prove that when the Federal Reserve loosens, the dollar depreciates, and funds immediately flow into high-risk assets like Bitcoin. This time, the dollar's credit is under severe attack (Trump fires the Bureau of Statistics director), and Bitcoin's 'anti-fiat depreciation' property is even more appealing!
New reservoir effect: Traditional markets are weak (US stocks rely entirely on AI support), large funds have to find high-yield places. The crypto market trades 7×24 hours with high volatility, making it naturally suitable for hot money speculation.
Liquidity turning point has appeared: US Treasury yields have plummeted, gold has surged, proving that the 'recession trade' has started! Once interest rates are cut, those holding cash will become the biggest winners.
4. Current ambush strategy: Don't get shaken out!
Short-term fluctuations are normal: In August, the crypto market was stagnant, mainly due to the handover of new and old funds (ETF buying hedging early sell-offs) + Ethereum staking pressure (3.1 billion dollars pending release), but the macro trend has reversed, don't get left behind! Position suggestion: Hold spot! Focus on Bitcoin, Ethereum (directly benefiting from ETFs) + AI, Depin (high elasticity sectors), keep 30% of funds to chase explosive growth after the rate cut.
I am President Fuqi, directly addressing the macro situation, and laying out strategies in advance.
