Market Analysis on August 26, 2025
The market has experienced the largest drop since the recent rise of Ethereum, and it has also been the toughest test. Interestingly, the culprit for this drop was Bitcoin. After Bitcoin touched 120,000 USD, the market showed signs of weakness with a clear selling signal. After the drop, it is currently testing the support strength at 110,000 USD. However, the most fitting keywords for this cycle regarding Bitcoin are 'aggressive' and 'stable.' When the market was in turmoil in the first half of the year, BTC's lowest price barely broke below 80,000, so theoretically, a catastrophic drop should not occur.
As for Ethereum, it is currently in a period of severe differentiation between long and short positions after being affected. Through beaconcha, we can see that the number of Ethereum waiting to exit staking has reached 930,000, while the number waiting to enter staking has surged to 600,000, mainly due to yesterday's whale operation of selling BTC to buy ETH. Logically, this wave of whale activity is beneficial for ETH, but the latter has failed to maintain strength and has seen an exchange rate pullback. Although it is still at 0.04, I actually believe that yesterday was the best breakthrough opportunity. If I must explain, I can only theorize a conspiracy that this wave was manipulated by major players because this whale made a large profit from ETH long positions while adjusting its portfolio, thus withdrawing short-term liquidity despite purchasing ETH.
How to view the future market, the outcome of the long and short struggle is unpredictable, but we can look at the more macro situation. First, there is still time to warm up for the interest rate cut on September 16-17, and there are currently no risk signals from the US stock market. As for the BTC pullback, it is mainly due to the impact of whale portfolio adjustments, and this operation will smooth out over time. This wave saw a direct rise from 4200 to 4800 with a single bullish candle, indicating clear signs of major player manipulation in the market again. Therefore, the huge volatility in price fluctuations actually shows that capital is intervening, aiming to further activate investor trading emotions. True selling will generally be delayed through the contract market.
Objectively speaking, there have already been some risk signals in the current market, whether it's the four-year cycle or the recently active market. Although the altcoin season has not yet arrived, and retail investors' FOMO emotions have not been ignited. However, that being said, after waiting so long, I definitely do not want to stop here. Cryptocurrency is a market where bull runs are short and bear markets are long, often creating several times the increase in a bull market lasting just a few months. Ethereum has set new highs several times, but has not really broken through significantly, which is definitely unreasonable. I will continue to implement a strategy of taking profits in batches after exceeding 5000.
Thank you for your attention and likes.#比特币远古巨鲸持续出清
