PANews reported on August 26 that on-chain analyst Murphy stated that the short-term holder cost basis (STH-RP, currently at $108,800) is the emotional 'bull-bear dividing line,' reflecting the average turnover cost of short-term chips. If the BTC price falls below this line, short-term investors will shift from unrealized gains to unrealized losses, which may cause market sentiment to shift from anxiety to panic, potentially disrupting the previous upward trend.
Historical data shows that after a breakdown, the market recovery time is relatively long, and the price may experience either wide fluctuations or a rapid drop, depending on market sentiment and macro events. The current support level range is between $112,000 and $108,000. If it breaks below, there is still a theoretical downside of 10%-15%, but this should be assessed in conjunction with the actual macro environment. Analysts recommend that investors prepare trading plans in advance to respond flexibly to market changes, while emphasizing that the current macro cycle is still in a loose phase, the BTC chip structure is healthy, and there are no obvious signs of turning bearish.
