The essence of the event: a power struggle between the president and the central bank.
Focus of contradictions.
Trump suddenly wants to dismiss Federal Reserve executive Cook on the grounds of 'loan material fraud' (accusing her of misrepresenting two houses as 'primary residences' to deceive for lower interest rates). But Cook shot back: 'You don't have that power! I will serve until 2038!'
Personal perspective: On the surface, this is about investigating loans, but in reality, Trump wants to place his people in the Federal Reserve to facilitate future interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy. Cook was nominated by Biden and has criticized Trump's policies for raising inflation; this conflict is inevitable.
Three key layers in the underlying game
Legal aspect: Federal Reserve executives are legally protected; the president cannot dismiss them at will, as it requires a court ruling of 'serious misconduct'. This may escalate to the Supreme Court. Political intention: If Trump succeeds, there will be 4 out of 7 seats in the Federal Reserve's decision-making body held by his appointees, rendering the central bank's independence a facade. Historical significance: The Federal Reserve has been established for 111 years without any director being dismissed by a president. Once this door is opened, global trust in the dollar system will collapse.
Market reaction: Money flows to safe-haven assets, and bitcoin becomes popular again.
The dollar is questioned, gold and bitcoin rise.
Once the news broke, the dollar index fell by 0.3%, gold instantly rose by $20, and bitcoin held steady without falling. The market logic is straightforward: central bank not independent → monetary policy becomes a joke → dollar credit is discounted.
Case verification: In February this year, when Trump threatened to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, bitcoin surged 15% to break $90,000 in a week; this script seems familiar.
The US inflation dilemma: it's all good news for bitcoin.
Policy choices and their impact on bitcoin: Rapid interest rate cuts lead to prices soaring to 4%, money becomes worthless, and demand for bitcoin as an inflation hedge surges; maintaining high interest rates leads to tariffs + infrastructure bills pushing up prices while real interest rates decline, forcing funds to seek new outlets. Trump is reported to have pressured for a 300 basis point rate cut, but regardless, ordinary people's wallets will shrink—this is precisely bitcoin's opportunity.
Opportunities for Bitcoin: from 'hedging spare tire' to 'essential option'
Three major thrusts make bitcoin more 'resilient'.
Debt bomb: US national debt interest is close to 6% of GDP (about $20 trillion); the old game of borrowing new to pay old debts is about to end; trust crisis: the central bank is entangled in politics, damaging the credibility of the traditional financial system; technological upgrade: bitcoin's cross-border transaction fees drop below 0.1%, and cross-border payments are expected to surge by 180% in 2024, greatly enhancing its practicality.
Large funds entering the market change the rules of the game
By 2025, institutions will hold over 2 million bitcoins, and giants like BlackRock entering the market will reduce volatility to 25% (compared to 80% in 2021). Bitcoin is no longer a chaotic gambling ground; it has become a legitimate asset.
The operational thinking of ordinary people: avoid landmines, focus on opportunities.
Be cautious in the short term.
Don't play with high-leverage contracts! The escalation of legal battles may trigger severe fluctuations in US stocks and bonds, with high risk of liquidation; pay attention to court rulings: if Trump loses, the dollar may rebound in the short term.
Mid to long-term layout logic.
Spot buying in batches: Referencing the 2022 interest rate hike cycle, institutions specifically buy during major dips, and ordinary people can just follow; gold + bitcoin + commodities trio: historical data proves they can indeed hedge against inflation (correlation of 0.6); keep an eye on US debt: when national debt interest exceeds $20 trillion, it may trigger a bitcoin explosion.
Governor's personal view: This is not a short-term fluctuation; it is a turning point in the monetary system.
Trump dares to challenge the Federal Reserve, essentially using political leverage to exchange for control over monetary policy. If he succeeds, global funds will accelerate their search for alternatives to the dollar— the simultaneous rise of gold and bitcoin has already hinted at this trend.
A real scenario: A foreign trade boss I met last year fixed 10% of his salary into bitcoin every month after settling foreign exchange. When I asked him why, he simply said: 'The dollar is unreliable; I need to keep a backup.' This mentality is spreading.
Today's bitcoin is not just a belief in technology, but also a vote of distrust against the old financial system. When the independence of central banks becomes a political toy, the rise of decentralized assets truly begins.
I am Governor Fuqi. If you want to delve deep into the cryptocurrency circle but can't find a clue, want to quickly learn about information gaps, click on my profile to follow me for first-hand information and in-depth analysis!
