1. Core Logic: The foundation of the dollar's safe-haven status is shaken.
The independence of the Federal Reserve is the underlying support for the 'safe-haven attributes' of US Treasury bonds and the US dollar - The market trusts that the Federal Reserve makes decisions based on economic data rather than political directives, which is why they are willing to hold US Treasury bonds and reserve US dollars. Once independence is undermined by political interference, investors will question whether 'US Treasury yields and the dollar's value are being artificially manipulated', shaking the global consensus on the dollar as a safe haven.
2. Market Transmission: Short-term volatility and long-term trust crisis.
Exchange Rates and the Treasury Market: During the period of political intervention, the US dollar index may be pressured by 'policy uncertainty' (e.g., a single-day drop of 0.5%-1%), and the US Treasury yield curve may distort (the short end affected by political directives, the long end reflecting market concerns about the Fed's credibility).
Global Asset Pricing: The dollar is the anchor for global asset pricing. If the Federal Reserve's independence is compromised, cryptocurrencies, gold, and other 'safe-haven substitute assets' may experience an influx of funds in the short term (e.g., Bitcoin rising 3%-5% in a single day), but in the long term, the market will fall into anxiety over 'policy unpredictability', reducing the willingness to allocate to risk assets.
3. Correlation in the Crypto Market: Risks and Opportunities Coexist.
Diverting Safe-Haven Funds: If the dollar's safe-haven status is impacted, some traditional safe-haven funds (e.g., US Treasury bond investors) may shift towards cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, which due to its 'decentralized and limited supply' characteristics, may become a 'new safe-haven target' supplement.
Policy Uncertainty Premium: Federal Reserve policy confusion will amplify volatility in the cryptocurrency market - If the Federal Reserve is forced to 'politicize liquidity', cryptocurrencies may rise temporarily due to liquidity easing; if policy reversals lead to market panic, crypto assets will also be sold off.
Conclusion: Independence is the Federal Reserve's 'credit moat'.
This incident exposes the 'political risk' of US monetary policy. If not contained, the dollar's status as a global currency anchor and the foundational pricing of US Treasury bonds as risk-free assets will be undermined. For the crypto market, there may be short-term inflows due to 'substitute demand for safe havens', but in the long term, the escalation of uncertainty in the global financial system will further amplify the high volatility characteristics of crypto assets. Investors need to be wary of extreme market conditions triggered by 'policy black swans'.
