ChainCatcher message, according to 4E observations, Tom Lee's team analyst Mark Newton pointed out that Ethereum (ETH) has a good risk-reward ratio around $4300. If the bull market trend continues, ETH is expected to bottom out here and break through $5100, rising towards the $5400-5450 range, which is of significant technical importance. Newton accurately predicted last week that ETH would find a bottom around $4070.
On-chain trader sentiment remains aggressive. Lookonchain monitoring shows that 'Brother Maji' continued to increase holdings in long positions such as ETH, BTC, HYPE, YZY, and PUMP during the market decline, with an overall unrealized loss of nearly $8 million. Meanwhile, BiyaPay analysts pointed out that after ETH reached a historical high of $4956, trading volume did not significantly increase, indicating potential short-term pullback pressure and a risk of dipping to $4000.
On the macro front, political risks in the United States have intensified. Trump signed an executive order to dismiss Federal Reserve Board member Cook, raising market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a weaker dollar and significant increases in non-dollar currencies and gold. Both CICC and UBS warned that Powell's speech at Jackson Hole should not be seen as the starting point for a series of easing measures, and the politicization of the Federal Reserve may elevate real borrowing costs.
Institutions remain bullish on the long-term logic of ETH. Fidelity stated in its latest report that Ethereum has the potential to become the core of global collaboration, but still needs to address the challenges of value capture posed by competing chains and modularization.
4E reminds investors: the technical outlook for ETH and institutional expectations are positive, but short-term volatility is increasing. Coupled with macro and policy uncertainties, investors are advised to pay attention to support and resistance levels and manage their position rhythm.