Original title: (WLFI pre-market halved, will it peak on September 1 or fall 'thousands of miles'?)
Original author: Golem, Odaily Planet Daily
WLFI is really coming this time. On August 23, the Trump family's crypto project World Liberty Financial (WLFI) announced that it would open WLFI token applications and trading on September 1. Early supporters of this application (at rounds of $0.015 and $0.05) can only unlock 20%, while the remaining 80% unlocking plan will be determined by community governance votes; the tokens held by the founding team, advisors, and partners will not be unlocked at launch.
After the clear launch date and unlocking plan for the tokens were announced, exchanges such as Binance, OKX, and Hyperliquid also announced the pre-market trading of WLFI/USDT perpetual contracts, pricing WLFI in advance. According to Binance data, WLFI peaked at $0.55 in pre-market trading, then fell continuously, currently maintaining a price around $0.22, with a fully diluted valuation of $22 billion.
Even though WLFI's pre-market price has halved from its peak, it has already achieved more than 14 times expected returns for participants in the first and second rounds of public offerings. With just one week left until WLFI's official launch, what kind of script will WLFI's price follow after the opening? Odaily Planet Daily will analyze this in this article for readers' reference.
Scenario One: Participants hedge and the opening price falls 'thousands of miles'
WLFI has already become too expensive, which is the direct feeling of many people. WLFI's pre-market contract price on Binance surged to $0.55, with a fully diluted valuation of $55 billion, surpassing TRX and DOGE, placing WLFI directly in eighth place by crypto market cap. Even if the price currently falls back to around $0.22, the fully diluted valuation of $22 billion still exceeds that of LINK, HYPE, and other popular recent tokens.
If the price is maintained at the current level at launch, early investors (participants of the first and second rounds of public offerings) will realize returns exceeding 14 times. Even if only 20% is unlocked, they have already achieved considerable returns, and WLFI is likely to 'splash' the market upon launch. Based on this analysis, in the face of selling pressure from early investors, the likelihood of major funds actively absorbing the selling pressure at WLFI's launch is extremely low; WLFI is likely to 'fall thousands of miles' in the first wave post-launch.
Moreover, WLFI has taken too long from its inception last year to its upcoming launch, and the phase of positive news has basically passed. The market may have already fully priced WLFI in the pre-market contracts, and the costs for ordinary investors who did not participate in the public offerings will be much higher than those of early investors, making them unwilling to take over the tokens from the initial unlocking.
Therefore, many players participating in the public offering will choose to hedge through WLFI contracts, securing some profits in advance. According to Coinglass data, as of now, the total holdings of WLFI contracts across the network have reached 1.272 billion tokens, valued at approximately $279 million, of which Binance WLFI contracts hold 698 million tokens, accounting for 53.77% of the total network, valued at $150 million.
At the same time, many players believe that even though the tokens held by the WLFI team and institutions are not unlocked, they may have already profited through pre-market contract hedging. Compared to retail investors, project teams/institutions with larger volumes and higher fault tolerance are more capable of hedging with contracts. This is not baseless speculation about the Trump family; it is no secret that the Trump family views the crypto industry as a 'cash cow.' Previous analyses by the Financial Times suggested that Trump profited at least $350 million from TRUMP, including token sales and market-making fees.
According to public information, the Trump family has only earned $57.35 million from WLFI tokens through token sales. If the team's and partners' tokens are not unlocked initially, there is a high possibility of profiting through pre-market contract hedging. This also means that after WLFI's launch, for a while, the team and its market makers may not actively raise WLFI's price.
Scenario Two: WLFI will replicate the script of TRUMP's early online phase
However, from another perspective, there is a view that pre-market contract prices are merely a reflection of market sentiment and manipulation by market makers, unrelated to the project itself. Due to the previous market overheating, it triggered a liquidation of long positions by manipulators. Similarly, in the one or two days before WLFI goes online, WLFI may also be significantly elevated due to short squeezes. According to Coinglass data, WLFI contracts currently have a significant number of long positions, with $2.1636 million in long liquidations and $1.045 million in short liquidations on Binance in the past 24 hours.
In addition, since both projects are from the Trump family, WLFI may follow a similar script to TRUMP after its launch. Although WLFI's fully diluted valuation has reached hundreds of billions of dollars, its actual circulating market value is not high. A total of 25 billion tokens were sold in the first and second rounds of public offerings, while only 5 billion tokens are in circulation during this initial unlocking phase. The unlocking plan for the remaining public offering tokens will depend on community voting, and the tokens held by the founding team, advisors, and partners will not be unlocked at the time of launch. This means that if calculated at the current price of $0.22, WLFI's circulating market value upon launch would be $1.1 billion, which is indeed an undervaluation for a project of WLFI's caliber.
In fact, this is similar to the early script of TRUMP, which had a total supply of 1 billion tokens, with a circulating supply of 200 million at launch. This led to TRUMP's market cap quickly reaching $10 billion on that day, as players realized the token structure of TRUMP, the market still believed that the token backed by President Trump was undervalued.
WLFI also carries Trump's endorsement, and on the day WLFI officially launches, it is highly likely that Trump will congratulate WLFI on social media or make various 'buy' statements, and the ambiguous relationship with the president will also provide more room for speculation about WLFI. Therefore, the price of WLFI at launch may also be continuously pushed higher.
Even when TRUMP launched and squeezed market liquidity, the market recognized the 'true face' of the Trump family and demystified celebrity coins. But even if we take a step back, the Trump family understands that 'pumping is the best marketing,' especially since WLFI is not just a purely meme coin; it also has business aspects like the USD1 stablecoin. Only by pushing WLFI's price higher can it convert crypto financial traffic into substantial ecological driving force.
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