Solana (SOL) has surged by 14.65% this month, thereby reclaiming the market cap milestone of 100 billion USD that it lost earlier this year. From the price range of 172 USD, SOL has added nearly 10 billion USD to its market value.
On the other hand, Binance Coin (BNB) only increased by about 9%. Nevertheless, this coin remains strong at a record market cap of 120 billion USD, corresponding to a price of 850 USD per token. In other words, Solana still needs about 20% more market cap to close the gap with BNB in the current cycle.
A notable bright spot is that the SOL/BNB ratio is closing August with an increase of 4.5% from the range of 0.21 - marking Solana's first growth month compared to BNB since May. This indicates that SOL is gradually regaining relative advantage and restarting its recovery on-chain.
In summary, the scenario of Solana 'turning the tide' against Binance Coin is no longer far-fetched. Technically, SOL needs to advance by another 20% to catch up with BNB, corresponding to a price target of 234 USD compared to the current range of 190 USD. This is a sure step, and signals for a new growth cycle are gradually appearing.
However, the challenges ahead are not easy. BNB has continuously set historical peaks, the most recent being 900 USD on August 22, right when SOL hit the resistance level of 210 USD. This promises a 'direct confrontation' between the two assets for the remainder of Q3.
Is BNB playing tricks with Solana's market cap?
Solana once reached a market cap of 115 billion USD but could not maintain it for long, causing a flurry of speculation in the market.
In just one day, the price of SOL plummeted nearly 8% from its peak of 213 USD, wiping out about 10 billion USD in market cap. This development further fuels the thought that Binance Coin (BNB) may have relied on Wintermute to curb Solana's upward momentum, in order to protect its market cap position.
Although it is still just a hypothesis, the SOL/BNB ratio has decreased by 3%, reflecting Solana's relative weakness as well as the shift of liquidity towards BNB. On-chain, the number of daily active addresses on Binance Smart Chain (BSC) increased by 7%, while Solana recorded a decrease of 3% — further reinforcing this trend.
The gap between the two ecosystems is even more pronounced. In many other metrics, Binance Chain is maintaining a significant monthly advantage, even though during the same period, BNB only increased by 9% compared to SOL's 14%. This indicates that the ATH milestones BNB has achieved are not just a short-term explosive phenomenon.
Ultimately, the hypothesis that 'Solana is being suppressed' lacks solid grounds. In both on-chain data and technical analysis, SOL still has a long way to go if it wants to challenge BNB's position. Meanwhile, Binance Coin continues to demonstrate strength and stability, becoming a more prominent name as the market enters the second half of the year.