As expected, it plummeted! Yesterday, Sponge mentioned that the Bitcoin weekly MACD death cross has been confirmed, and indicators also show signs of a second top divergence! On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin's support has been maintained for a month, and the 112 position has been retested four times, with current chip consumption nearing the end. If the price drops again, this support level is likely to be breached. If it falls below $110,000, it is expected to see $108,000 for BTC.
Last night, Bitcoin and Ethereum encountered a violent spike! Bitcoin once plummeted to $108,666, while Ethereum dropped to $4,311! Currently, both are experiencing a slight rebound. In the past 24 hours, a total of 206,371 traders have been liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount reaching $941 million. It is expected that during the daytime today, BTC will lead altcoins in a rebound from overselling. Currently, market sentiment remains short-term focused, and it is advised to avoid overly aggressive positioning.
Bitcoin
Yesterday, it effectively broke below the neckline ($112,000). After breaking below $112,000, cryptocurrency began to decline comprehensively. Bitcoin has now fallen to the STH Realized Price, and the A wave has basically completed. It is expected to find short-term support at the STH Realized Price. Next, Bitcoin is likely to undergo a B wave rebound, which can at least retrace to $112,000. After a brief pullback today, it will likely rally tomorrow.
Currently, the main position has cleared out $110,000 long positions, and the number of long positions below is scarce, which may significantly weaken the downward momentum. In terms of spot, you can try to acquire in the range of $108,000 to $110,000. If the price falls below $105,000, it means the daily level Vegas channel has broken, and caution is needed for short to medium-term risks.
Hehe strategy: Go long around BTC $109,500, with the replenishment point at $109,000, stop loss set at the previous low, and take profit target around $111,950.
Ethereum
From the daily level, after the coin price broke through historical highs, a top divergence adjustment appeared. The K-line has been declining continuously, but the overall trend has not broken, and there is support from MA30 below. Therefore, even if the pullback is significant in the short term, it is expected to drop to around $4,200 at most. After adjustment and accumulation, ETH is expected to challenge the pressure level of $4,600 again.
The overall trend of Ethereum remains bullish, and it is recommended to seize this pullback opportunity. This decline is obviously an intentional market suppression by institutions to clean out retail investors, with the aim of accumulating at lower prices. With U.S. policy support and the first large-scale compliant entry of Wall Street institutional funds, the foundation of this bull market is different from the past, and the outlook remains optimistic. $5,000 is not the endpoint for Ethereum; the current pullback is preparing for a subsequent breakthrough of $5,000 and an attack on the $5,550-$5,880 area.
Strategy: Go long around ETH 4380, set the replenishment point at 4330, stop loss at 4300, and take profit target around 4540.
Altcoins
The plunge in Ethereum has dragged down the altcoin market, with strong coins like BIO, OKB, CRV, etc., also following the decline.
The current altcoin market is indeed quite difficult to operate. Although interest rate cuts are on the way, the market washout makes it feel uncomfortable. The overall market rises slightly, and altcoins rise a bit, but when Bitcoin and Ethereum drop, altcoins crash hard.
I think we can pay more attention to on-chain projects recently; Sponge has an idea to share with everyone.
When the Meme coin on the SOL chain was booming, PumpFun was at its peak. As the market matured, the difficulty of PVP increased, but BonkFun began to emerge, bringing many star projects. Almost every platform will give birth to a few hundred-fold or thousand-fold coins, allowing many meme players to become wealthy.
The core logic of these projects is actually quite simple: for a platform to develop, it must create a wealth effect to attract users. Therefore, I think it is possible to search for some opportunities on the XLayer platform, and combined with the last performance of OKB's rally, there are many potentials worth exploring.
(1) As long as xlayer becomes active, OKB will rally dramatically (proving that there are very few circulating chips).
(2) star publicly stated that they hope everyone pays attention to risks (indicating that the situation has exceeded their original expectations and control).
(3) From the official statements over the past couple of days, the shift in attitude proves that the internal team is conducting public relations with the market (indicating the awareness that if the market is good, OKB's rally would be extremely easy).
(4) star announces a $100 million strategic fund (proving they are truly beginning to promote the ecosystem).
(5) okxdex charges (proving they are formally prepared to test market conditions). It is not difficult to judge that several things will definitely be promoted.
(6) Officially forming a team for xlayer (application ecosystem).
(7) Officially securing quality teams in the market.
(8) OKX CEX DEX integration transition (or liquidity connection).
(9) Establishing a developer ecosystem (greatly helps IPO valuation). Everything is moving in a positive direction.
Finally, Sponge wants to say that many people panic when they see the market turn bearish, thinking that bear markets can only result in losses.
In fact, a decline is an opportunity for a few to become rich. Here are several methods to share with family:
Reasonable shorting: Open short positions through contracts, taking profits on sharp declines.
Leverage reversal: Choose to short ETFs or inverse tokens, following the trend to profit.
Arbitrage hedging: Combine long and short to hedge risks and stabilize profits.
Short-term rebound: There are rebounds even in a bear market; be flexible with buying high and selling low.
Cultivating patience: Buying the dip after a significant drop often represents a chance for the next bull market that could yield a thousandfold return.
