Overall Market Judgment
Bitcoin is still in a bear market pattern, so do not blindly chase shorts. It is recommended to reduce positions during the rebound process. If a rebound occurs, the highs only provide shorting opportunities. Ethereum's long-term target remains clear around 10,000 USD, but caution is still needed for short-term timing. Altcoins may gain support at certain positions.
Recent Review
Yesterday we judged that the Bitcoin trend showed a top divergence, and the bear market pattern is likely already established. Although Ethereum has the potential to impact 5,000 or even higher in the medium to long term, short-term strategies should focus on taking partial profits and hedging operations for relative safety. Yesterday, we pointed out that Ethereum had pressure around 4706 USD, and reducing positions could be considered, as the highest point of the rebound only reached 4691, consistent with market trends and judgments.
Bitcoin Trend Analysis
Currently, Bitcoin's trend is very clear. The price had previously broken below the downward trend line, and the daily line has long confirmed the breakdown. Yesterday's close once again fell below the key stop-loss swap, indicating that the double top neck line position will be breached. If it continues to decline, the medium-term target is at 98,000 USD, while the long-term target may even be around 76,000 USD. In the short term, based on Fibonacci retracement, the area between 106,000 and 103,000 USD is relatively effective support and is likely the first buying range.
If the rebound is high, the target area is obviously first at around 112,000. If it does not reach, one can short high. Additionally, there is also a gap in the range of 114,000-116,000. If it can reach here in the short term, it presents an excellent shorting opportunity.
Ethereum Trend Outlook
Ethereum's long-term outlook still points to 8000 to 10000 USD, but there is clear short-term pressure, as this is a clear false breakout. This is almost the same as the false breakout after Bitcoin broke the previous high some time ago. The resistance around 4520 USD is clear, and if it cannot break through, there will be significant short-term pullback pressure. In the medium term, the probability of forming a double top is high, and the next target to lay out long positions is around 3400.
Altcoin Market
The altcoin sector can also gain temporary support in the overall declining market. Although there are short-term rebound opportunities, cautious operations should still be combined with the overall market trend. Moreover, the Bitcoin dominance index is supported, and the altcoin to Bitcoin exchange rate is also supported, two completely opposing indicators, so it is still mainly a defensive strategy. The relatively good buying area for altcoins in the short term is still around a total market capitalization of 260 billion USD, which is about another 10% decline.
Risks and Suggestions
Overall, the market is still in a high-risk stage, and chasing highs or full positions is not appropriate. The long-term trend for Bitcoin and Ethereum remains optimistic, but the short- to medium-term adjustment pressure cannot be ignored. It is recommended that investors reduce positions when prices are high, or they can choose not to if they want to hold long-term, as the third and fourth quarters are still expected to see bullish trends. Please remain patient and wait for better low-position layout opportunities. Risk control should always be prioritized, and one should avoid being influenced by short-term volatility emotions.
