From a long-term perspective, the bull market is definitely not over. Old Biden has a good saying: "You can't just say it's a bull market when Bitcoin is rising."
Bitcoin often shows a negative correlation with the US dollar index: when the dollar is strong, Bitcoin is weak; when the dollar is weak, Bitcoin is strong.
2017 Bull Market: The dollar index fell from 103 to below 90, while Bitcoin rose from $1,000 to nearly $20,000 during the same period.
2020–2021 Bull Market: After the pandemic, the dollar index fell from 103 to 90, while Bitcoin rose from over $10,000 to $69,000.
2022 Bear Market: The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes led the dollar index to reach a 20-year high (114), and Bitcoin fell below $20,000.
Strong Dollar Cycle (Federal Reserve raises interest rates, global capital flows back to the US): Emerging markets experience capital outflows, risk assets are under pressure, and Bitcoin tends to weaken.
Weak Dollar Cycle (Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, dollar depreciation): Global capital seeks yield opportunities, liquidity floods the market, and Bitcoin, gold, and US stocks often strengthen simultaneously.
The current Federal Reserve is in the process of shifting from tightening to easing, the dollar index is at a relatively high level but has entered a downward volatility range, which is a medium- to long-term positive for Bitcoin.
