"30 million liquidated in 1 hour!" "The tug-of-war at 4700 dollars is intensifying, longs and shorts are about to clash!"
Background messages are refreshing faster than K lines; when you open the exchange, sure enough—both sides have stacked over 400,000 troops at the current price (corresponding to leverage positions), buy and sell orders collide like waves, and the price can bounce up and down 50 dollars within 5 minutes, with someone being liquidated every second.
This is not an ordinary market; it's clearly a cryptocurrency version of the 'Battle of Sekigahara': the bulls are Tokugawa Ieyasu's eastern army, and the air force is Ishida Mitsunari's western army, slaughtering at the foot of 4700 dollars; and BlackRock and Grayscale are like the 'Kato Kiyomasa army' standing atop the mountain—everyone is guessing how their billions in funds will help tonight.
1. The slaughter at the bottom is crazy: 400,000 leveraged funds are grinding flesh, and retail investors without stop-loss are being 'harvested in bulk.'
Now, opening the perpetual contract page, the data can scare you into shivering:
The bulls have placed 220,000 U buy orders between 4720-4750 dollars, all from retail investors who leveraged 3-5 times to gamble on a breakout;
The air force buried 180,000 U sell orders between 4680-4700 dollars, many were shorts chasing bearish patterns;
Even more ruthless, positions with over 5x leverage account for more than 40%, equivalent to 400,000 people holding 'suicidal charge' weapons; as long as the price moves 3% in one direction, it will trigger a chain liquidation.
Like the foot soldiers on the battlefield of Sekigahara, swinging their swords wildly, they have no idea they are merely 'consumables.' Just now, at the moment of breaking 4700 dollars, 8 million U long positions were liquidated within 5 minutes, and Xiao Li in the group cried, 'I chased at 4720 with 5x leverage, and now it’s liquidated, half a year’s salary is gone…'
2. The big players at the peak are holding still: what are BlackRock and Grayscale waiting for?
Everyone is shouting 'institutions, come save the market,' but those who understand history know: Kato Kiyomasa once placed 15,000 troops on the peak of Sekigahara, not to act as a 'referee' but to wait for the 'winning side.'
BlackRock and Grayscale have the same mindset now.
They hold over 20 billion U in funds, enough to single-handedly turn the tide of battle;
But in the last 3 days, on-chain addresses have not moved—neither adding long positions nor opening shorts, like the army on the peak, watching the battle below through binoculars.
This is not 'cowardice'; it's the survival rule of institutions: never bet on 'who should win,' only calculate 'who can win.' Last year, when ETH surged to 4900 dollars, retail investors led the way, while institutions watched from the sidelines for 4 hours, only entering with 2 billion U after breaking 4900 dollars and the 1-hour trading volume exceeding 500 million, pushing the price to 4957 dollars, perfectly capturing the last segment of the market.
They are currently focusing on two data points:
The bulls must hold above 4750 dollars, and the 1-hour trading volume must exceed 300 million dollars (proving that real money is entering);
The air force must win by breaking through 4650 dollars, with liquidation orders exceeding 500 million dollars (indicating the bullish defense line has completely collapsed).
Before meeting these two conditions, institutions will never act—just like Kato Kiyomasa, who waited for the signal of the eastern army's dominance before descending to reap the benefits.
3. Retail investors shouldn't be cannon fodder! These 3 operational details can save your life; wait for the big players to reveal their cards before making a move.
Tonight's market is thrilling, but the dumbest move is to 'go all-in with heavy positions on direction.' Here are 3 strategies from veteran players in the circle that can allow you to profit without being harvested:
1. Lightly experiment, with your stop-loss nailed to the 'life-and-death line.'
You can now use 5% of your position to experiment (for example, with 10,000 U in capital, invest up to 500 U):
For those who are bullish, lightly long near 4720 dollars, with a stop-loss set at 4640 dollars (10 dollars lower than the air force's key level, to prevent being swept out);
For those who are bearish, lightly short near 4700 dollars, with a stop-loss set at 4760 dollars (10 dollars higher than the bullish key level).
Remember: don't set your stop-loss too close! The volatility is too high now; a 50-dollar stop-loss isn't much; otherwise, you can easily get swept out by 'double liquidation.'
2. Watch for the institutions' 'entry signals,' don't queue up too early.
Institutions will have 'small actions' before entering the market:
If the bulls are dominant, you will see 'large buy orders suddenly appearing in succession' (like orders above 1 million U), and the price will not drop back below 4750 dollars;
If the air force is dominant, there will be 'anonymous addresses dumping large sell orders,' and at the same time, the exchange's funding rates will suddenly turn negative (the air force starts earning interest).
Seeing these signals before adding to your position is 10 times more reliable than randomly gambling now—just like in the Battle of Sekigahara, ordinary soldiers following Kato Kiyomasa's banner won't die in the wrong direction.
3. Don't exhaust yourself! The real direction tonight may emerge after 2 AM.
Institutions love to act when 'retail investors can't hold on.' In the last 3 major market movements, 2 of them erupted between 2-4 AM—when there are fewer retail investors watching, the entry resistance for institutions is minimal.
If it is still hovering between 4650-4750 dollars before midnight, it is better to sleep for 3 hours and set an alarm for 2 AM. Staying up late can make money, but pushing through to the point of mental confusion can lead to foolish decisions.
The last blunt truth: those at the peak do not move; the fighting at the bottom is all 'acting.'
The Battle of Sekigahara lasted 6 hours, but the decisive moment was only the 10 minutes when Kato Kiyomasa descended the mountain. Tonight's market is the same; no matter how fierce the battle of 400,000 leveraged funds is, as long as BlackRock and Grayscale do not act, it could be a 'trap to lure the enemy deeper.'
Don't think 'missing out means losing'; there will always be market opportunities, but capital is only once. Waiting for institutions to clarify their stance, even if it costs 10 dollars more to enter, is better than gambling everything now—after all, no one will remember how many soldiers died on the battlefield of Sekigahara, but everyone knows who benefited from following Kato Kiyomasa.
Let's discuss in the comments: do you think institutions will help the bulls or the bears tonight? Those who guess correctly will receive (Institutional Fund Tracking Manual) tomorrow, teaching you how to detect the small actions of big players in advance. For those who are watching the market now, hit a like to let me see how many big players are fighting alongside us~#ETH创历史新高
