Written by: BitpushNews
This Monday, the crypto market saw intensified fluctuations. Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $110,000 mark, hitting a low of $109,324, the lowest point since early July, while Ethereum briefly fell below $4,400, with a nearly 8% drop in 24 hours. This round of decline triggered a massive liquidation across the market: according to CoinGlass data, as of this writing, the total liquidation amount exceeded $900 million in 24 hours, with Ethereum longs losing about $322 million and Bitcoin longs losing $207 million.
The market chain reaction has been swift, with mainstream altcoins under pressure: Solana plummeted over 8% in a single day, XRP fell 6%, while smaller market cap tokens such as PENDLE, LDO, and PENGU recorded double-digit declines, with a single-day drop of up to 13%.
Historical pattern: The 'September curse.'
Investor caution is not without reason; CoinGlass statistics show that September is one of the months with the worst performance for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The chart above compares the actual gains and losses of BTC and ETH in September from 2017 to 2024, showing that:
BTC has shown negative performance in most years in September, with only 2023 (+3.91%) and 2024 (+7.29%) recording increases.
The decline in ETH in September is usually larger, with 2017 (–21.65%), 2020 (–17.08%), and 2022 (–14.49%) significantly underperforming BTC.
Only in 2019 (ETH +5.72% vs BTC –13.38%), 2023, and 2024 did ETH show stronger performance.
This 'September curse' has appeared in previous bull market cycles. In 2013, 2017, and 2021, Bitcoin experienced sharp corrections in September after strong rebounds in summer.
Analyst opinion: Short-term trend reversal
Prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen indicated that the strength of July-August often reverses in September, and Bitcoin is likely to dip to around $110,000, the bull market support band. He also warned that Ethereum may briefly reach new highs but then drop by 20–30%, with altcoins potentially declining by 30–50%.
Another active market analyst, Doctor Profit, added a more pessimistic judgment from macro and psychological perspectives. He believes that the Fed's interest rate cut in September is more of a trigger for uncertainty than a positive signal. Unlike the 'soft landing interest rate cut' expected in 2024, this may represent a true 'major turning point,' potentially triggering a synchronous correction in both the stock and crypto markets.
At the price level, he also emphasized that there is still a CME gap around 93k–95k in the BTC chart, where a large amount of liquidity is concentrated, while retail investors generally have their positions in the 110k–120k range or even higher. To wash out these 'weak hands,' the price must drop into their 'maximum pain zone.'
In his strategy, he indicated that he has gradually reduced exposure to BTC and ETH spot, and is shifting to short-term short positions.
The latest capital flow data shows that the enthusiasm for ETFs is cooling down. According to SoSoValue, last week saw a net outflow of $1.17 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs, the second-largest weekly net outflow in history; spot Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $237.7 million, the third-largest record in history. This indicates that institutional funds are temporarily shifting to a wait-and-see approach, weakening the support for the spot market.
On-chain data also reveals structural signals. Glassnode points out that the entire Bitcoin holder group has 'collectively entered the distribution phase,' highlighting that the market is experiencing widespread selling pressure. After reaching a new high of $4946, Ethereum has retraced, with the MVRV indicator rising to 2.15, meaning investors are holding an average of over twice the unrealized gains. Historically, this level is similar to those seen in December 2020 and March 2024, both occurring before sharp fluctuations and profit-taking.
Macro factors: The Fed and interest rate risks.
The uncertainty in the macro environment further exacerbates market tension. Last Friday, Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible interest rate cut in September, briefly boosting market optimism, but Cowen and Doctor Profit both reminded that rate cuts are not necessarily favorable and may instead lead to rising long-end Treasury yields, thereby suppressing risk assets. This is quite similar to the situation in September 2023, when rate cuts marked the low point in the bond market, followed by a surge in yields. Additionally, Benjamin Cowen pointed out that the recent Producer Price Index (PPI) data shows that inflation is 'hotter than expected,' which undoubtedly adds extra pressure to the market. In the absence of complete relief from inflationary pressures, a shift in the Fed's policy may trigger new market turmoil.
Outlook and conclusion
Looking at historical patterns, analyst opinions, and the macro environment, it can be seen that September poses multiple pressures on the crypto market:
Seasonal decline – Historically, September has averaged significant losses.
Macro uncertainty – The Fed's policy could become a watershed moment for the market.
Imbalanced capital structure – Institutional funds flowing out, retail investors chasing high positions.
On-chain selling pressure intensifies – All holding groups are entering distribution, and whale trades disturb the market.
Although Cowen and Doctor Profit have different judgments on the adjustment magnitude, the consensus is that September is not a time for a bull market turning point upward but rather a test that must be faced.
However, from a longer-term perspective, this cleansing may also be a necessary step for the continuation of the bull market. The market needs to clear overheated positions in the 'maximum pain zone' to make room for the next round of increases. If the cleansing is thorough, BTC may still challenge new highs in subsequent cycles, and the long-term upward logic for ETH will not change.
