In response to the current volatility characteristics of the crypto market, combined with Ethereum's pullback to $4,400 and the key node of the monthly line closing, strategies can be adjusted from both the market's common logic and Ethereum's specific responses, considering the high volatility attributes of cryptocurrencies and trend patterns:

1. Common logic of the crypto market's 'monthly line closing': Don't be swayed by short-term fluctuations

The impact of the monthly line closing on cryptocurrencies is essentially a combination of 'trend anchoring' and 'fund rebalancing'—the crypto market lacks the stable valuation system of traditional markets, making the monthly line patterns more likely to become a 'psychological consensus' among retail and institutional investors, especially amid the current intertwining macro variables like the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations and ETF fund flows, which will amplify this consensus's influence on short-term trends.


From a historical perspective, the monthly line closing of cryptocurrencies has two typical characteristics:

  • 'Patterns determine direction': If mainstream coins (like BTC and ETH) close the monthly line with a 'breakout and pullback bullish candle' (for example, ETH currently pulling back from $4,888 to $4,400 without breaking the monthly low), the probability of continuing the trend in the next month exceeds 60%; if it closes with a 'long upper shadow + high volume bearish candle', it may trigger quantitative funds' 'trend reversal strategies', leading to correlated pullbacks.

  • End-of-Month Capital Game: The settlement cycle of funds in the crypto market is shorter (many institutions adjust their positions weekly/monthly). Within 24 hours before the closing of the monthly line, the large withdrawal/deposit activities on exchanges will significantly increase (for example, the net inflow of ETH on Binance has recently grown by 30% compared to the daily average), caution is needed against 'whales driving down prices to create K-lines' or 'bottom-fishing funds entering the market' triggering sudden spikes.

2. Ethereum's pullback to $4,400: Response strategies combined with the characteristics of cryptocurrencies

1. First clarify the 'essence of pullback': Is it a trend reversal or normal shaking out?

The pullback of cryptocurrencies is often accompanied by a chain reaction of 'leveraged liquidation - panic selling', which requires separating emotional interference:


  • On-chain, when ETH pulls back to $4,400, the net outflow from exchanges reaches 23,000 coins (around $10.12 million), while whale addresses (with balances over 10,000 coins) actually increase their holdings by 5,800 coins, indicating that the chips have not concentrated among retail investors, but are more likely a 'short-term leveraged fund liquidation' causing a shakeout (similar to ETH's rebound after pulling back from $2,400 to $1,800 in June 2023).

  • From a market linkage perspective, during the same period, BTC's pullback was about 8%, while mainstream altcoins like SOL and ARB pulled back by 10%-15%. ETH's pullback (about 9%) matched with mainstream coins, showing no 'independent crash', indicating that the issue is not with ETH's fundamentals but rather the overall 'emotional transmission' in the crypto market.

2. Operations at the monthly line closing: Define strategies based on 'positions', don't bet on one-sided moves

The high volatility of cryptocurrencies means that both 'fully loaded positions' and 'empty observations' are prone to missteps, which requires splitting based on position attributes:


  • Long-term position (60%): Anchor the trend, ignore short-term fluctuations
    If the holding is 'idle money not used for over 3 years' and agrees with ETH's ecological logic (e.g., Layer 2 locked value surpassing $20 billion, RWA tokenization accounting for 81%), then $4,400 can be seen as a 'pullback accumulation window'—bull markets in the crypto market often come with 3-5 'pullbacks of over 20%'. In 2021, ETH pulled back from $2,000 to $1,000, and in 2023 it pulled back from $2,100 to $1,500, both presenting similar 'buying opportunities'. A stop-loss can be set at 'monthly line low - 3%' (currently about $4,200), and if breached, consider reducing positions to avoid being washed out by 'extreme spikes'.

  • Short-term position (30%): Capture waves, enter and exit quickly
    Before the monthly line closes, ETH is likely to oscillate in the $4,300-$4,600 range (the 'integer barrier effect' in cryptocurrencies is stronger, with $4,400 and $4,500 being short-term psychological levels). A light position can be tried below $4,400, targeting $4,550-$4,600 (the oscillation center before the pullback), and take profits promptly—short-term sentiment in the crypto market changes rapidly, and it is more important to secure profits than to wait for the 'perfect target'; if it breaks below $4,300, stop-loss and exit directly to avoid being caught in the panic emotions of 'monthly line closing negatively'.

  • Cash reserve (10%): Wait for 'certainty signals'
    The crypto market never lacks opportunities. The 1-2 days after the monthly line closing (September 1-2) are more suitable for directional observation: if ETH stabilizes above $4,600, and BTC rebounds simultaneously (confirming 'mainstream coin resonance'), then cash can be used to add positions; if it continues to break below $4,300, cash can be used to bottom-fish more resilient targets (like BTC or platform tokens with a staking rate over 30%), diversifying risk.

3. Risk Control: The 'Survival Rule' in the crypto market cannot be neglected

  • Don't believe in the hype of 'monthly lines must rise/fall': The crypto market does not have 'ironclad rules'. After ETH's monthly line closed positively in May 2022, the market directly entered a bear phase due to the LUNA collapse; after closing negatively in November 2023, it rebounded due to ETF approvals. The key is whether 'funds continue to exit'—if ETH's spot ETF sees an outflow exceeding $500 million in a single day, or if the balance of ETH on exchanges increases by over 100,000 coins in one day, decisive action to reduce positions is needed.

  • Stay away from leverage: When closing the monthly line, the volatility of cryptocurrencies is often 30% higher than usual (for example, ETH's 4-hour price fluctuation may expand from 2% to 5%). Long positions may be 'stopped out by spikes', while short positions may face 'liquidation on rebounds', making spot trading more prudent.

3. Conclusion: For cryptocurrencies, 'surviving' is more important than 'guessing the monthly line'

Ethereum's pullback to $4,400 and the approaching monthly line closing essentially reflect the normal characteristics of the crypto market's 'high volatility + strong sentiment'. There is no need to worry about 'how much the monthly line closes to rise'; focus on doing two things well:


  • Long-term position 'grabs the big trend': As long as ETH's ecosystem (Layer 2, RWA, staking) does not collapse and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations do not reverse, pullbacks are 'opportunities';

  • Short-term position 'recognizes small fluctuations': Don't be greedy, take profits within the oscillation range, acknowledge losses if support is broken, as opportunities in the crypto market are always in the 'next wave'.


Remember, making profits in cryptocurrencies has never been about 'guessing the monthly line shape', but about 'holding positions through fluctuations and keeping pace with trends'—the monthly line is just a reference; don't let it bind your judgment.$ETH $BTC #加密市场回调