Last night around 7 PM, a key market dynamic surfaced, possibly providing core clues for the recent weakness of Bitcoin. According to market data and analyst Willy Woo's perspective, Bitcoin experienced a sharp drop of 2.2% within 9 minutes, with the price falling to $112,174, and the market cap evaporating by $45 billion in an instant.
I. Tracing the Core Selling Forces
• The main selling pressure came from OG holders who purchased Bitcoin at a low price of $10 in 2011. The sale of such low-cost holdings exerts significant pressure on the market.
• For every Bitcoin sold by this group, the market needs to inject $110,000 in new funds to absorb it, resulting in significant liquidity consumption pressure.
• Among them, one whale sold 18,142 bitcoins (worth about $2 billion) in a single transaction and converted the funds into 416,598 ETH, with some ETH already staked.
II. Whale Operations and Market Chain Reactions
• Tracing back to August 16, this whale had already begun actions: transferring 24,000 bitcoins (approximately $2.7 billion) to the Hyperliquid platform and significantly increasing its ETH holdings.
• Its ETH holdings peaked at 551,861 coins (approximately $2.6 billion), realizing a profit of $185 million through the ETH/BTC trading pair.
• When this whale closed its ETH long position, market sentiment reversed, triggering a wave of Bitcoin sell-offs, leading to a price decline.
III. Potential Variables in the Subsequent Market
• The aforementioned whale still holds 152,874 bitcoins in its cold wallet, and its subsequent moves need to be continuously monitored.
• Another major player has also joined the 'abandon BTC for ETH' camp, selling 670 bitcoins (approximately $76 million) and switching to a long position on ETH.
• In terms of capital flow, ETH has risen 220% since April, continuously attracting funds that originally flowed into Bitcoin, forming a pattern of 'ETH absorbing capital, BTC under pressure.'
IV. Reflection on Market Perception and Expectations
For a long time, the market generally classified Bitcoin held in cold wallets for over 5 years as 'lost private keys.' Price expectations were calculated based on an actual circulating supply of approximately 7.1 million coins, without considering these old wallets in liquidity assessments. However, recent dynamics show that a large number of cold wallets holding Bitcoin for over 10 years are still active, indicating a deviation in previous circulating supply estimates.
The core issue in the current market is that neither retail investors nor institutions are prepared for the 'early whale collective recovery.' However, it is worth noting that these whales have not completely exited the market; rather, they are mostly adjusting their holdings by switching to ETH or partially reducing their positions, rather than cashing out entirely. If whales intensively recover in the future and choose 'only to cash out without switching,' not only will retail investors face greater pressure, but the entire price expectation system of the Bitcoin market may undergo reconstruction.
