The bull market does not end with a single bearish candle, but often after a series of deep pullbacks, people realize in despair that it has come to an end. This issue needs to be viewed from several levels - we cannot directly conclude "the bull market is over" based solely on a day or two of price plummeting.

Let me outline a few key points for you:

1️⃣ Macroeconomic and Funding Aspects

Interest Rate Environment: If the Federal Reserve really enters a rate-cutting cycle, global liquidity will improve, which is overall positive for risky assets (including cryptocurrencies).

Institutional Funds: The inflow of ETFs and traditional funds is an important driving force behind the bull market, and there are currently no obvious signs of large-scale capital withdrawal.

2️⃣ Bitcoin Structure

Supply Pressure: Recently, the German government, Mt. Gox liquidation, and OG whale sell-offs have indeed increased market selling pressure in the short term.

Technical Aspect: BTC has retraced more than 20% from its peak, and such deep corrections are not uncommon in historical bull markets (as seen in 2017 and 2021).

3️⃣ Altcoin Sentiment

Funding Preference: In the later stages of a bull market, funds will gradually flow from BTC/ETH to altcoins. However, many altcoins have already halved or suffered even worse, indicating a decrease in risk appetite.

Project Narratives: Narratives around AI, RWA, and payments have not disappeared, but the enthusiasm has significantly cooled.

4️⃣ Conclusion Reference

Is the bull market over?

👉 From the perspective of macro liquidity and ETF inflows, there is still no solid evidence that it has ended.

👉 However, from the standpoint of market sentiment and structural adjustments, it has entered the "danger zone" of the bull market, which may represent the oscillation phase in the latter half or even the tail end of the bull market.

In other words, this may not be the beginning of an all-out bear market, but rather a "trap period" in the bull market where liquidation is most likely and where retail investors are most susceptible to losses.