Leveraged investors continue to strengthen their Bitcoin futures positions despite falling prices, but options and ETF indicators show that cautious sentiment still prevails.
BTC price retreated to $109,400 after a 5-year inactive whale sold $11 billion and moved capital to Ether on Hyperliquid. Nevertheless, futures open interest peaked, while put options were 10% more expensive than calls, and net outflows from spot ETFs exerted short-term pressure.
MAIN CONTENT
Record futures demand of 762,700 BTC, but $85 billion OI does not necessarily mean optimism.
Defensive sentiment: puts higher than calls by 10%, 2-month futures premium at 8%, funding rate at 11% in the neutral zone.
Short-term catalysts: ETF spot capital flows and the expiration of options worth $13.8 billion could guide the $120,000 mark.
What just happened to Bitcoin's price?
BTC dropped to $109,400, the lowest in over six weeks, after a whale sold $11 billion and shifted to ETH spot and futures on Hyperliquid. This is a quick adjustment, bringing technical selling pressure.
The chain effect caused BTC to lose $6,050 in just two days. The whale's pivot to Ether altered short-term sentiment, although large flows typically stabilize over time. The market maintains deep liquidity even over the weekend, but the speed of order matching raises doubts about timing and purpose for large trades.
What does increasing demand for Bitcoin futures say?
Open interest in Bitcoin futures peaked at 762,700 BTC, a 13% increase from two weeks ago, indicating that traders have not left the market despite BTC falling 10% from the peak on August 14.
However, $85 billion OI does not reflect a bullish bias, as long and short positions are always balanced. If buyers use excessive leverage, a drop below $110,000 could trigger a liquidation chain. Data source: CoinGlass.
What signal is the 2-month futures premium sending?
The 2-month futures premium at a neutral level of 8%, up from 6% last week, has yet to exceed 10% for over six months, including when BTC hit a peak of $124,176.
This indicates that leveraged flows have not established sustainable bullish confidence. When the basis is below 10%, the derivatives market mainly reflects a neutral state rather than euphoria. Data source: Laevitas.ch.
Why is the funding rate returning to neutral noteworthy?
The perpetual futures funding rate decreased to 11% after a short spike, remaining within the neutral range of 8%-12% typically seen in balanced markets.
Neutral funding implies that leveraged buying demand is not exceeding short selling. A part of the lackluster sentiment stems from a net outflow of $1.2 billion from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs during the period of August 15–22, causing the bullish strategy to lack support from base capital. Source: U.S. ETF market data compilation.
Why are put options more expensive than calls by 10%?
Put options are trading higher than calls by 10%, reflecting defensive sentiment after BTC's rapid decline. The 30-day delta skew leans towards downside risk hedging.
This spread indicates that buyers hedging against downside risks are willing to pay a higher premium in the short term. Although fear is rising, this is not unusual after strong volatility. Sentiment may stabilize when the flows between BTC and ETH normalize again. Data source: Laevitas.ch.
Does the momentum from spot ETFs still determine the $120,000 mark?
The chance of a rebound to $120,000 has not vanished, but it likely depends on whether spot ETF capital flows return amid uncertain global growth.
Spot ETFs are an important base demand channel, cushioning prices when institutional investors increase allocations. When there's a net outflow, the confidence ratio with buyers decreases, causing the market to rely more on derivative leverage, which is vulnerable to liquidity shocks.
"Bitcoin is digitizing gold in many ways, and it is an international asset."
– Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, 07/05/2023, CNBC
What does the liquidation of $284 million in leverage say about liquidity and risk?
The recent drop caused long positions to liquidate $284 million, indicating deep liquidity still exists over the weekend, but the risk of a price decline with dense leverage is palpable. Source: CoinGlass.
When long positions are concentrated and stops are dense, a break of a psychological level like $110,000 could trigger a chain liquidation. This explains why the premium and funding have not surged despite record OI: the market remains defensive.
Could the expiration of $13.8 billion in options on Friday be a catalyst?
The expiration of options worth $13.8 billion could be an event that reshapes new positions, prompting investors to rebalance after the volatility.
With the skew leaning towards puts, if BTC holds above key technical levels, short gamma could be forced to buy back, creating a price-lifting effect. Conversely, breaking critical levels before expiration could trigger additional risk hedging, reinforcing the downward momentum.
What questions arise from the $11 billion whale moving to Ether?
A 5-year inactive wallet sold $11 billion in BTC and shifted capital to ETH spot and futures on Hyperliquid, raising questions about timing and motivation.
Structurally, large capital flows often exploit order book depth and liquidity gaps. The psychological impact is strong but tends to wane as the market absorbs it. It is important to monitor whether this behavior triggers thematic allocations between BTC and ETH or is merely a one-off event.
Summary table of key derivatives indicators and capital flows
The key indicators below clarify why the market remains cautious despite record OI.
Indicator Current Level Implication Source Open interest futures 762,700 BTC (~$85 billion) High leverage demand, not necessarily bullish CoinGlass 2-month futures premium 8% Neutral, below the euphoria threshold of 10% Laevitas.ch Perpetual funding rate 11% Neutral range 8%-12% Laevitas.ch Delta skew 30 days Puts higher than calls by 10% Defensive sentiment Laevitas.ch ETF spot BTC (U.S.) Net outflow of $1.2 billion (August 15–22) Reduced base demand U.S. ETF data compilation Options expiration $13.8 billion (Friday) Repositioning catalyst Options market
Frequently Asked Questions
Does record open interest mean prices will rise?
No. High OI simply indicates many open positions. Since longs and shorts are balanced, if buyers use high leverage, a price drop could trigger a chain liquidation. Reference: CoinGlass.
Why is the 2-month futures premium below 10% important?
A basis above 10% often reflects strong upward expectations. The current level of 8% indicates neutral sentiment, with investors not ready to pay more to hold futures contracts. Source: Laevitas.ch.
What does a put higher than a call by 10% indicate?
The investor pays a premium to hedge against downside risk, indicating a bias towards a short-term downward scenario. This is a common reaction after strong volatility. Source: Laevitas.ch.
Is the 11% funding rate a cause for concern?
In the neutral range of 8%-12%, a funding rate of 11% does not indicate extreme supply-demand imbalance. It reflects a temporary balance between longs and shorts. Source: Laevitas.ch.
What could pull BTC towards $120,000?
The return of ETF spot capital flows is a key factor, combined with the absorption of positions after the expiration of options worth $13.8 billion. Without base capital flows, the upward momentum is easily vulnerable to leverage shocks.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/btc-ban-thao-hdtl-tang-vi-sao/
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