The subsequent trend of Bitcoin is influenced by various factors, and there are differing market views. Here are some analyses from both short-term and long-term perspectives:

Short-term Trend Analysis

- Impact of Macroeconomic Data: Bitcoin's recent outlook will mainly depend on the upcoming U.S. economic data, including GDP data and core personal consumption expenditure inflation data. If the data shows a slowdown in the U.S. economy and relief in inflation, the Federal Reserve may begin a rate-cutting cycle, creating a liquidity-rich environment that is favorable for Bitcoin's recovery; conversely, if the data performs strongly, investors may maintain a defensive stance, leading to a short-term pullback in Bitcoin.

- Federal Reserve Policy Guidance: The Federal Reserve's policy guidance and changes in U.S. Treasury yields have a significant impact on Bitcoin. If the 10-year inflation-protected bond yield falls and the dollar weakens, Bitcoin may regain upward momentum. Additionally, the tone of remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is also crucial; if he adopts a dovish tone, it may provide short-term support for Bitcoin, while a hawkish stance may trigger a significant pullback in Bitcoin and other risk assets.

- Changes in Capital Flows: In recent weeks, there has been a trend of some large holders reducing their Bitcoin holdings and increasing their Ethereum holdings. Since August, Ethereum ETFs have attracted a large influx of funds, while Bitcoin ETFs have recorded only a small inflow or even outflows. This may lead to a certain degree of price pressure on Bitcoin in the short term.

Long-term Trend Analysis

- Institutional Predictions are Optimistic: Citigroup released a report predicting that Bitcoin's price could rise to $135,000 by the end of 2025, and in an optimistic scenario, it could soar to $199,000. The main drivers are strong demand for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, a steady increase in user adoption rates, and gradual improvements in the global macroeconomic situation.

- Long-term Growth Expectations: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes that by 2030, Bitcoin's price could reach $1 million. He attributes this to the increasing leniency and clarity of U.S. regulatory policies, as well as the growing global fiscal deficit and increasing economic uncertainty, prompting people to shift from fiat currency systems to Bitcoin.

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