The weekend market can be described as a 'roller coaster'—the annual meeting showed dovish signals, and both the US stock market and crypto market rebounded. Bitcoin once surged above 117k, and Ethereum even set a new historical high.
However, the much-anticipated 'altcoin season' has not fully unfolded, and BTC suddenly plummeted by 4000 points in the early morning, causing many eager players to be directly harvested, leading to sudden market panic.
BTC: Short-term oscillation, direction to be confirmed
Bitcoin surged to a high of 117.5k last week but failed to break the key resistance at 118k, the trend remains weak.
Focus on the support range of 110-112k below;
Resistance at 116-118k. If it stabilizes above 118.5k, there’s a chance to open the upward channel of 120-122k.
Currently, Bitcoin sentiment is weak, and many retail investors view 110k as a psychological barrier. Once it breaks, panic sentiment will amplify.
However, in my view, if you panic because of a correction, it indicates that the altcoin position is too heavy. It’s best to take the opportunity to switch to BTC or ETH, as this will provide a more stable holding mentality. After all, Bitcoin's 'death countdown' has been played out countless times, each time reaching new highs, and the long-term logic remains unchanged.
ETH: Stronger trend, accelerated capital inflow
Ethereum clearly outperformed Bitcoin this time, rising from 4200 to 4800, with an ATH over the weekend.
Currently, the key support level is at 4600;
If it can stabilize above 4850, it will directly open up space to 5000-5300.
The capital situation is also verifying this point:
ETH ETF saw continuous inflows, reaching as high as $337 million in a single day;
Staking demand has rebounded, and CEX ETH is accelerating outflow;
The ETH/BTC exchange rate once broke 0.043, indicating that capital is shifting from BTC to ETH.
Wall Street mogul Peter Thiel is also heavily betting on ETH, seeing it as the core blockchain for future #RWA (Real World Assets). Clearly, ETH's strength may continue to suppress BTC.
Altcoins: Capital is looking for rebound opportunities
The altcoins worth paying attention to this week:
#DOGE, #SOL: May rebound at any time;
WLD, JTO: Good trends;
Domestic concept coins (QTUM, #NEO, ONT, #IOST, etc.) surged by 20%-50% over the weekend, due to rumors of 'policy warming' and inflow of Asian capital;
The DeFi sector performed brilliantly, with #UNI once surging by 40%, #LINK's upgrades being favorable, and the TVL and demand for ETHFI, ENA, etc., continuing to rise.
The new coin market is also hot:
$XPL, #WLFI enjoyed significant returns right after the opening due to institutional backing;
The logic of this round in primary and secondary markets is actually very clear: invest in leaders, invest in large-cap projects, the strong remain strong, while small coins carry greater risks.
Market macro and capital situation
Powell's speech was dovish: employment risks are rising, inflation is moderate, and market expectations for a rate cut in September soared to 91%;
Data forecast: This week’s Q2 GDP and July PCE will affect rate cut expectations, but overall, the outlook for the market remains friendly;
Geopolitical risks: Pressure on Russia-Ukraine talks has not yet shown substantial progress, with limited short-term impact.
On the capital front, BTC ETF has seen a slight outflow for 6 consecutive days, while ETH ETF is strongly attracting capital. Whale movements also confirm this: old money is selling BTC and buying ETH.
My opinion
This round of correction feels more like a 'position test'—if you panic because BTC dropped to 110k, it indicates a problem with your position structure. My advice is simple:
BTC/ETH is the base position, altcoins are the spice;
The market is oscillating in the short term, but opportunities in ETH and some leading altcoins are already brewing;
In the long run, as long as the dollar continues to be printed, the value of BTC and ETH will not stop.
Time rewards those who patiently hold core assets, rather than those who are swayed by short-term fluctuations.
This article ends here! If you still can't find your way in the crypto world, it might be better to layout with me. I'm waiting for you; otherwise, in the next wave of the market, you might be the one standing on the other side.
