'The story of the boy who cried wolf is heard three times, but when the wolf really comes, retail investors are still missing a hunting rifle!'—Captain shouted this to the community while the K-line was stuck at the ghost gate of 4600. Old chives understand, the ETH market in August was like an old movie on repeat, with every shot writing the word 'trick.'

Looking at the glaring '3900 fake breakout' mark on the chart, my lungs hurt. How many people chased long positions because of the 'breakout signal' above 3900? As a result, the big players turned around and smashed down, and liquidation orders rained down like it was raining. This is not a breakout; it is clearly the big players knocking on the door with their scythe! Now the price is pressed down to 4600, and 4700 stands there like a solid wall—this month it has tried to break 4950 three times, each time like hitting a ceiling and bouncing back. The most amusing thing is that every time there is a dip, some brothers in the community shout 'If it drops to 4000, I will go all in,' but when the big players actually smash it down to 3940, those calling for a bottom are nowhere to be seen (laughs).

But in September there is a nuclear-level variable: the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. In the community, some people shout 'The floodgates are open!' I directly pour cold water: the crypto market is best at 'good news turning into bad news'! Remember the time in July when the CPI data fell unexpectedly? Everyone on the internet was shouting bull, and as a result, ETH's long positions were liquidated in a spike and then it plummeted. Now all eyes are on the interest rate cut; large funds are more likely to play 'expectation management'—first smashing the pit to absorb shares, then after retail investors despair and sell at a loss, they will use the good news to pump the price. My friend Lao Zhang, who is fully invested in altcoins, got stuck with a 20% loss after bottom-fishing UNI last month, and yesterday he asked me with a sad face whether he should cut losses. I replied to him: 'The big players are just waiting to collect your bloodied chips.'

The technical side is even more distressing: the MACD is opening downwards below the zero line, and the 4-hour chart is being suffocated by the moving averages. Will it truly break through 4700? It must meet three conditions: a volume exceeding the previous high + stabilizing for three days + Bitcoin not dragging its feet. Otherwise, it will follow the script of 'fake breakouts must retrace.' My real account has already set conditional orders: if it breaks 4750, go long with 5% of the position, if it drops below 4500, open a short to hedge—before the wolf really comes, prepare your hunting rifle first.

Key deduction:

Before September, the probability is high that it will maintain a range of 4300-4700. Position short near the upper edge and look for quick rebounds near the lower edge.

If it falls below 4000, the 'true breakout level,' decisively cut losses and wait for it to stabilize at 3800.

Extreme caution is required in the week before the interest rate cut, beware of the black swan 'buy the expectation, sell the fact.'

For those watching the community waiting to bottom-fish, it might be good to ask yourself three questions:

1. Is your position over 30%?

2. Can you withstand a 20% spike?

3. Have you seen through the big players' fake breakouts?

Remember this saying from the captain: a bull market is born in despair, grows in doubt—but will never let you make money through FOMO and blindly chasing highs! Are you currently holding chips waiting to hunt, or lying on the chopping board waiting to be harvested?

Remember, there are no experts in the crypto world, only 'survivors.' Are you ready to be a 'scythe' or 'chives'? Let me know in the comments!