$ETH Evening Thoughts:
How fierce is the secondary market, classmates? Yesterday's secondary market was not just fierce, it was extremely fierce, but what’s the use? It’s all over in just three seconds. I had just entered the zone and you were already done. Remember, if the primary market doesn’t rise, the secondary market will eventually drop back. This wave of high hanging and restoration is meant to make the secondary market clear about its path.
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Talking through the charts: The box drawn on the hourly chart of the secondary market has been broken, and if it can’t return to the box, the secondary market will continue to drop. Look at this yellow downward trend line in the chart; if it can’t break through, the secondary market won’t rise. If 4561 is broken, even that big bullish candle from August 22 may not be able to hold, unless the secondary market breaks through this yellow downward trend line and re-enters the box for consolidation to stop the drop.
The secondary market should break above 4617 for a right-side long position; if it breaks 4587 with volume, then take a short position. Pay attention to changes in volume and set proper stop losses.
If the hourly level of the secondary market can stabilize above 4616, look up to 4664-4720; if it can’t stay above 4616, there’s no need to look upwards.
At the 4-hour level, if 4532 is broken, look down to 4490-4446. If 4532 breaks, it will drop back the same way it rose.
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Continuing with the charts: At the 4-hour level of the secondary market, look at the K-line pointed to by the white arrow above, which surged in the early morning. This big doji star with a long upper shadow seems to penetrate but just missed touching the 5000 mark by 43 dollars. Why? Is it because there wasn’t enough buying power?
No, it was dragged up by 200 dollars, just missing the 43 dollars? It’s because after breaking the previous high of 4893, most people believe it will break 5000, so many classmates chose to go long after the breakout, betting that the secondary market will break 5000. This is a tactic of the operators. You think it will break 5000, but I will stop it just a few dollars short, and instead, I will trap those who chased the high. When approaching 5000, the operators distribute their shares while retail investors buy in. When encountering such a market that is about to break a key round number, either wait to enter after the breakout, or just don’t enter to avoid being trapped. The secondary market has risen quite a bit, and a pullback to the 61.8% Fibonacci level is a normal correction, which doesn’t damage the upward trend. If it pulls back to the 1:1 level and can’t recover, that would be considered a break of this bullish trend. Let’s wait for the US stock market to open tonight to see if it continues to drop or if there will be a rebound without breaking key resistance, and then continue to drop. Meeting adjourned.